Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

0z ECMF Wind tracks..(excludes Paulette, & Rene tracks, not shown)
....also shows mid level disturbance drifting across FL
https://i.ibb.co/MPkNg82/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090900.png

This is consistent with the change from close to due west to a more WNW average track of model consensus. Also, this shows that stronger faster for the most part favors an earlier recurve.

[DestinHurricane]

0z ECMF Wind tracks..(excludes Paulette, & Rene tracks, not shown)
....also shows mid level disturbance drifting across FL
https://i.ibb.co/MPkNg82/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090900.png

This is consistent with the change from close to due west to a more WNW average track of model consensus. Also, this shows that stronger faster for the most part favors an earlier recurve.

Faster would mean closer to Rene and Paulette. Rene and Paulette is what is causing the model to show a recurve.

If this wave is slower it will mean more time for the ridge to build back in and close off the escape route.

[LarryWx]

0z ECMF Wind tracks..(excludes Paulette, & Rene tracks, not shown)
....also shows mid level disturbance drifting across FL
https://i.ibb.co/MPkNg82/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090900.png

This is consistent with the change from close to due west to a more WNW average track of model consensus. Also, this shows that stronger faster for the most part favors an earlier recurve.

Faster would mean closer to Rene and Paulette. Rene and Paulette is what is causing the model to show a recurve.

If this wave is slower it will mean more time for the ridge to build back in and close off the escape route.

Good point. When I said stronger faster, I was only referring to getting stronger more quickly, which I think would favor an earlier recurve all other things being the same.

Also, a more W than WNW track early would tend to favor getting further west in the basin, which is pretty normal for most TCs.

[cycloneye]

The NOAA data center is having problems and the 12Z GFS will be delayed

[TheStormExpert]

The NOAA data center is having problems and the 12Z GFS will be delayed

Here’s another site?

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&ps=area#

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON says very early recurve in the E Atlantic.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly, I recognize it's still early September, but if this wave ends up being another struggle-storm like Rene and Paulette, there may be legit reason to think this season probably won't produce any long tracked hurricanes.

[aspen]

12Z ICON says very early recurve in the E Atlantic.

It keeps Sally going W/WNW until a little after 5 days, when it rapidly recurves into the central Atlantic. That seems to be a theme with some of the model runs; either Sally immediately tries to recurve, or it recurves after 5-6 days. They might be overdoing a weakness in the ridge.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this shift continues future Sally might not be as strong as anticipated and that means less ACE which means we are likely not going to get anywhere near the expected ACE thresholds of this season.

We aren't even at the season peak yet. The real monsters are late-Sep early-Oct.

Peak season is tomorrow. And you can get monster storms anytime from especially August-October. Nothing special about late-September or early-October.

True. And I’ve also seen seasons die off quickly once early October came around. Not saying it’s going to happen, but it can

[Spacecoast]

12z at this site
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=noat&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=202009090600%26HH%3D318

[cycloneye]

12z GFS running at Tropical Tidbits site.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS running at Tropical Tidbits site.

https://i.imgur.com/g1Drzcc.png

Going very slow.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS joins ICON with a recurve well OTS though not as far east as the 40W of the ICON. It does curve east of Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC joins the ICON and GFS with a recurve well OTS, this one way out at 45W.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

OTS seems the most likely scenario should it decide to ramp up quickly.

[SFLcane]

12Z CMC joins the ICON and GFS with a recurve well OTS, this one way out at 45W.

That’s unlikely almost on a rapid NNW heading.

We will see if EPS comes north in a few hrs.

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z CMC joins the ICON and GFS with a recurve well OTS, this one way out at 45W.

I think the party is almost over on this one. As long as it develops at a decent speed, out to sea she blows

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS mean joins the 12Z runs of the GFS, ICON, and the CMC with a well OTS recurve. The mean is further NE than recent GEFS runs. I can’t see individual members yet. So, there still may be a couple that go much further west.

So, the 12Z consensus so far is saying recurve well OTS and even E of Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Who has the 12z UKMET?

[SFLcane]

Who has the 12z UKMET?