2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ColdMiser123]

There continues to be zero consistency from the Euro. Last run had a major hurricane nearing the islands by 168 hours, with Paulette as a major hurricane. Now both systems are weak by 168 hours.

In terms of intensity, absolutely. In terms of track, this is yet another run that will put this system into the Caribbean, significantly farther south than most other guidance which is a red flag to me. Genuinely reminds me of how it was consistently farther south with Irma than all other guidance in the medium to long range.

Euro is great with track, not so much with intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There continues to be zero consistency from the Euro. Last run had a major hurricane nearing the islands by 168 hours, with Paulette as a major hurricane. Now both systems are weak by 168 hours.

In terms of intensity, absolutely. In terms of track, this is yet another run that will put this system into the Caribbean, significantly farther south than most other guidance which is a red flag to me. Genuinely reminds me of how it was consistently farther south with Irma than all other guidance in the medium to long range.

Euro is great with track, not so much with intensity.

Agreed, 2020 has probably seen the Euro's worst year in the Atlantic for intensity. The CMC outperformed it beyond 120 hours for Laura.

['CaneFreak]

There continues to be zero consistency from the Euro. Last run had a major hurricane nearing the islands by 168 hours, with Paulette as a major hurricane. Now both systems are weak by 168 hours.

In terms of intensity, absolutely. In terms of track, this is yet another run that will put this system into the Caribbean, significantly farther south than most other guidance which is a red flag to me. Genuinely reminds me of how it was consistently farther south with Irma than all other guidance in the medium to long range.

Euro is great with track, not so much with intensity.

Well the big problem is if you can't handle intensity well you are not going to handle track all that well in this kind of pattern. Period.

[ColdMiser123]

There continues to be zero consistency from the Euro. Last run had a major hurricane nearing the islands by 168 hours, with Paulette as a major hurricane. Now both systems are weak by 168 hours.

In terms of intensity, absolutely. In terms of track, this is yet another run that will put this system into the Caribbean, significantly farther south than most other guidance which is a red flag to me. Genuinely reminds me of how it was consistently farther south with Irma than all other guidance in the medium to long range.

Euro is great with track, not so much with intensity.

Well the big problem is if you can't handle intensity well you are not going to handle track all that well in this kind of pattern. Period.

The main difference between the Euro and all other guidance is a significantly stronger evolution with the ridge to the north, so regardless if it is a weak or strong system, that would drive the system more westward.

[NDG]

There continues to be zero consistency from the Euro. Last run had a major hurricane nearing the islands by 168 hours, with Paulette as a major hurricane. Now both systems are weak by 168 hours.

That's nothing new from the Euro this season, one run has a system as a MH the next run it has it as a barely TS.

['CaneFreak]

In terms of intensity, absolutely. In terms of track, this is yet another run that will put this system into the Caribbean, significantly farther south than most other guidance which is a red flag to me. Genuinely reminds me of how it was consistently farther south with Irma than all other guidance in the medium to long range.

Euro is great with track, not so much with intensity.

Well the big problem is if you can't handle intensity well you are not going to handle track all that well in this kind of pattern. Period.

The main difference between the Euro and all other guidance is a significantly stronger evolution with the ridge to the north, so regardless if it is a weak or strong system, that would drive the system more westward.

Well the operational GFS this past run actually had a weaker ridge than the ECMWF and the GFS took it more southward. It's the strength of the system that is influencing the track not the strength of the ridge unless I am missing something and feel free to enlighten me.

[ColdMiser123]

Well the big problem is if you can't handle intensity well you are not going to handle track all that well in this kind of pattern. Period.

The main difference between the Euro and all other guidance is a significantly stronger evolution with the ridge to the north, so regardless if it is a weak or strong system, that would drive the system more westward.

Well the operational GFS this past run actually had a weaker ridge than the ECMWF and the GFS took it more southward. It's the strength of the system that is influencing the track not the strength of the ridge unless I am missing something and feel free to enlighten me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020090812/gfs_z500aNorm_atl_33.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020090812/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_9.png

I don't think intensity was the primary reason for why it took a southward route, more related to that the wave itself seemed to split into two pieces early on, which timed the westward piece well under the ridge.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 270-384 Hours...

[USTropics]

Another excellent video by Levi on the the evolution of these systems:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1303457539246272512




[youtube]https://youtu.be/UXK8nfRRu-4[/youtube]

[Fancy1001]

Is the Gfs delayed?

[USTropics]

Is the Gfs delayed?

Seems this is isolated to TropicalTidbits site (GFS model doesn't update for quite some time past 222 hours on the last 3-5 runs I believe). Eventually it does come through. The actual data files are available and other sites are updating fine.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro dropping storms again. It's like two different models are running, the 12Z and the 0Z.

12Z


0Z

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or did the 06z GFS just plow future Sally into a huge ridge again? Not sure what I’m missing here that may erode the ridge.


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[mitchell]

The 6z GFS and GFS parallel BOTH show a major Hurricane near Bermuda on Sunday the 20th, however the are of different origin.

for the GFS the major hurricane near Bermuda is future Sally
for the GFS-Para the major hurricane is Paulette

Interesting...to me anyway.

[tomatkins]

The 6z GFS and GFS parallel BOTH show a major Hurricane near Bermuda on Sunday the 20th, however the are of different origin.

for the GFS the major hurricane near Bermuda is future Sally
for the GFS-Para the major hurricane is Paulette

Interesting...to me anyway.

The only thing that seems sure is that Paulette, Rene (or their remnants), and Sally will be in the Atlantic at the same time. Where they are. Their interaction. Whether some energy from future Sally splits and heads towards the Caribbean. All that seems up in the air and at least somewhat dependent on what the other storms are doing.

[Fancy1001]

The CMC 12z has a triple Fujiwara affect with Paulette Rene and Sally all rotating around each other. First time The models have ever shown something like that to my knowledge, I could be wrong though.

[Fancy1001]

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/2bb2b809-5a0e-4ce5-8703-475cb786cddd

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The GEM's package of tropical cyclones shows:

[aspen]

The NHC has highlighted another tropical wave for potential development in the near future. I believe this is the precursor to the second system the models have been showing for some time, the one a little after Sally that’s further to the north.

[Spacecoast]