Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

Who has the 12z UKMET?

Based on 144, likely recurve well OTS imo:
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.2N 20.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 12.2N 20.2W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2020 12.5N 23.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 13.1N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 13.9N 29.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 14.5N 32.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 15.4N 35.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 16.4N 37.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.5N 40.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.8N 43.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 20.0N 45.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[jlauderdal]

12Z GEFS mean joins the 12Z runs of the GFS, ICON, and the CMC with a well OTS recurve. The mean is further NE than recent GEFS runs. I can’t see individual members yet. So, there still may be a couple that go much further west.

So, the 12Z consensus so far is saying recurve well OTS and even E of Bermuda.

The cape verde season is over for North American landfall...ACE is actually underperforming this season, size does matter

[TheStormExpert]

We aren't even at the season peak yet. The real monsters are late-Sep early-Oct.

Peak season is tomorrow. And you can get monster storms anytime from especially August-October. Nothing special about late-September or early-October.

True. And I’ve also seen seasons die off quickly once early October came around. Not saying it’s going to happen, but it can

That’s more common in El Niño seasons. Considering this is still a developing La Niña season I’d assume the western half of the basin will stay active into October or even November.

[DestinHurricane]

One model suite and storm cancel. Really guys..

They are recurving because of interaction with Rene. The track is going to depend on that.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS Gen Prob = 68%, some members are weaker, & more south than 6z after 72 hrs
12z:


6z:

[LarryWx]

One model suite and storm cancel. Really guys..

They are recurving because of interaction with Rene. The track is going to depend on that.

Nobody is canceling a storm. Regardless, overwhelming model trends, if they have any value, are saying increasing chance that it will recurve well OTS vs how it looked 24 hours ago. It isn’t just the 12Z as the trend has been in this general direction the last 24 hours or so. Let’s see what the all knowing, all seeing, mighty King says within the next hour. The 0Z Euro also recurved sharply.

As has been mentioned by others, there is a bias at tropical wx boards that causes folks to question OTS models more than questioning landfalling models largely because OTS is relatively boring despite OTS being very good news.

[TheStormExpert]

One model suite and storm cancel. Really guys..

They are recurving because of interaction with Rene. The track is going to depend on that.

Storm cancel, really!? No one is canceling this storm other than the fact that if it doesn’t develop into the long anticipated long tracking major hurricane that’s way overdue. An OTS scenario is increasingly likely regardless of strength.

[TheStormExpert]

One model suite and storm cancel. Really guys..

They are recurving because of interaction with Rene. The track is going to depend on that.

Nobody is canceling a storm. Regardless, overwhelming model trends, if they have any value, are saying increasing chance that it will recurve well OTS vs how it looked 24 hours ago. It isn’t just the 12Z as the trend has been in this general direction the last 24 hours or so. Let’s see what the all knowing, all seeing, mighty King says within the next hour. The 0Z Euro also recurved sharply.

As has been mentioned by others, there is a bias at tropical wx boards that causes folks to question OTS models more than questioning landfalling models largely because OTS is relatively boring despite OTS being very good news.

No fun in tracking fish storms other than when they become good looking majors!

[ConvergenceZone]

One model suite and storm cancel. Really guys..

They are recurving because of interaction with Rene. The track is going to depend on that.

It’s not Storm cancel, but more than likely landfall cancel. Climatology significantly favors recurve. You don’t have the far reaching expansive high pressure ridges, stretching across the Atlantic this time of year. There are usually plenty of escape routes.

We should be happy this is the case. Otherwise we would end up with far more land falling hurricanes every year

It’s true though that this thread will die out quickly if no threat. It already has, to a point

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cheezyWXguy]

Who has the 12z UKMET?

https://i.imgur.com/hWu429j.png

I assume this is a problem with the model’s resolution, but the depiction looks funny with 100kt in the ne quad and 50kt in the sw quad

[cheezyWXguy]

Also, while I have little confidence in track, I don’t think sally is going to make it to the US or the Antilles, maybe Bermuda. But once these 3 finish their dance, the models seem to generally agree on the ridge building back in. Whether the the waves that follow sally develop in the mdr or not, it does seem they’ll have a better chance to make it west. With this, and the predictions of favorable conditions in the Caribbean later this month into October, the Caribbean looks like a time bomb to me.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

[DestinHurricane]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

Models always windshield wipe back and forth. Posters sure have been quicker than normal to storm cancel.

[ConvergenceZone]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

Models always windshield wipe back and forth. Posters sure have been quicker than normal to storm cancel.

You need to scroll up and read our prior responses to you, and then you’ll know why. Our responses to you are completely logical

[SFLcane]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

Huge spread...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

Models always windshield wipe back and forth. Posters sure have been quicker than normal to storm cancel.

Nobody is saying storm cancel.

Based on hour 120, the 12Z King looks to be going WAY west of the 0Z. How far west is anyone’s guess as it is still early in the run.

[Spacecoast]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

Yes.... GFS-Para has a lot of uncertainty, (low confidence).
Recurves occur anywhere from 25W-95W. IOW, it doesn't really know what's going to happen.

[SFLcane]

Euro should recurve East of the islands though it’s west of 00z run. We shall see what eps has to offer

Edit: Heads straight north near 50W into weakness

[AnnularCane]

The 12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.

Huge spread...

https://i.postimg.cc/J4R4ncsz/AE38-C490-9-AE7-44-ED-8790-7-CB143126-A71.gif

Looks like an outbreak of shingles.

I am more than ready for this to be an invest. I don't even know why. I just am.