ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Naked center incoming. Might well survive to fight another day but will have to see how well it fights the next few days. If it pulls a page from Omar's book, possibly very successfully

['CaneFreak]

Let the wobble watch begin...

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=765&initrange=24.250000000000:-53.500000000000:15.750000000000:-39.500000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

[ElectricStorm]

Steady as she goes
17L PAULETTE 200909 1800 20.3N 46.9W ATL 50 996

[CyclonicFury]

I'd say Paulette is fighting on pretty well. Shear will be at its maximum tomorrow before beginning to decrease over the weekend. It's a large storm, and becoming a bit stronger than expected early on may make it more likely for Paulette to survive. Some model runs have indicated the potential for Paulette to become a hurricane near Bermuda before becoming extratropical.

[aspen]

I'd say Paulette is fighting on pretty well. Shear will be at its maximum tomorrow before beginning to decrease over the weekend. It's a large storm, and becoming a bit stronger than expected early on may make it more likely for Paulette to survive. Some model runs have indicated the potential for Paulette to become a hurricane near Bermuda before becoming extratropical.

If Paulette does make it through tomorrow and ends up strengthening in 5-8 days, she’ll be worthy of the nickname Persistent Paulette. We’ve already had Micro Marco and Nano Nana, and I’m still trying to think of one for Omar.

[wx98]

I'd say Paulette is fighting on pretty well. Shear will be at its maximum tomorrow before beginning to decrease over the weekend. It's a large storm, and becoming a bit stronger than expected early on may make it more likely for Paulette to survive. Some model runs have indicated the potential for Paulette to become a hurricane near Bermuda before becoming extratropical.

If Paulette does make it through tomorrow and ends up strengthening in 5-8 days, she’ll be worthy of the nickname Persistent Paulette. We’ve already had Micro Marco and Nano Nana, and I’m still trying to think of one for Omar.

Obstinate Omar

[Sciencerocks]

I'd say Paulette is fighting on pretty well. Shear will be at its maximum tomorrow before beginning to decrease over the weekend. It's a large storm, and becoming a bit stronger than expected early on may make it more likely for Paulette to survive. Some model runs have indicated the potential for Paulette to become a hurricane near Bermuda before becoming extratropical.

If Paulette does make it through tomorrow and ends up strengthening in 5-8 days, she’ll be worthy of the nickname Persistent Paulette. We’ve already had Micro Marco and Nano Nana, and I’m still trying to think of one for Omar.

Crappy Omar

[ElectricStorm]

17L PAULETTE 200910 0000 20.6N 47.6W ATL 50 996

[aspen]

NHC is now showing a hurricane at 120 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC is now showing a hurricane at 120 hours.

Bermuda really needs to keep an eye on this

[gfsperpendicular]

NHC is now showing a hurricane at 120 hours.

Bermuda really needs to keep an eye on this

Agreed. They are now showing a 85mph hurricane right smack over the island.

[Do_For_Love]

Taking a beating from the shear and moving like a turtle, lol. Looking at a rough couple of days until reaching more favorable conditions.

[aspen]

Paulette is finally weakening to the 30-40 kt shear it's being blasted with. 12z best track is down to 45 kt/998 mbar. She's held up rather well over the last two days of shear and should be able to recover once shear lessens and becomes more diffluent.

[plasticup]

NHC is now showing a hurricane at 120 hours.

Bermuda really needs to keep an eye on this

Need to stock up on rum.

[supercane4867]

HWRF runs have been consistently showing Paulette struggling in the short run but re-intensifies into a potent hurricane by day 4 and afterwards.

[EquusStorm]

That cone is bad news for Bermuda if she picks back up as fast as expected. Even the globals have wanted to ramp Paulette up into a major next week; certainly not looking like the fish storm it was several days ago.

[plasticup]

That cone is bad news for Bermuda if she picks back up as fast as expected. Even the globals have wanted to ramp Paulette up into a major next week; certainly not looking like the fish storm it was several days ago.

5 days out the middle of the cone is the safest place you can be. I hope.

[us89]

5 PM advisory keeps the wind speeds at 50mph, but the pressure is down 1 mb:

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[EquusStorm]

Don't usually expect to see sustained -80°c towers only a little NE of the low level center of a storm in 40kt of southwesterly shear. At least not in the middle of the evening. Paulette definitely has the will to live.

[CyclonicFury]

Paulette is doing better with 40 kt of shear than Rene is with 10 kt of shear.