Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro should recurve East of the islands though it’s west of 00z run. We shall see what eps has to offer

Edit: Heads straight north near 50W into weakness

And that weakness is created by Paulette passing by to the north of future Sally as Paulette heads ENE out to sea, so a lot depends on Paulette's position, strength and heading

[gatorcane]

Euro should recurve East of the islands though it’s west of 00z run. We shall see what eps has to offer

Edit: Heads straight north near 50W into weakness

The Euro is recurving everything north into the North Atlantic graveyard.

[ClarCari]

15 pages...
Who wants to bet between this getting 95L tonight or tomorrow morning

And is there a possibility the wave right behind it might try to seep into 95L? It could influence strengthening and direction ifff that happens..

[TheStormExpert]

The North Atlantic vacuum has been turned on! This place should be a ghost town in a few days if trends continue. Enjoy the fish food!!

[TheStormExpert]

15 pages...
Who wants to bet between this getting 95L tonight or tomorrow morning

And is there a possibility the wave right behind it might try to seep into 95L? It could influence strengthening and direction ifff that happens..

I want to bet that the 95L/Sally thread doesn’t get more than 15 pages if trends of an OTS solution continue.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: not as threatening as the 0Z but still has a sizable SW camp of ~25% of the members that are threatening:

[CyclonicFury]

The North Atlantic vacuum has been turned on! This place should be a ghost town in a few days if trends continue. Enjoy the fish food!!

Too soon to write this off as a fish when it hasn't even exited Africa yet. The 12z EPS has some members threatening the Lesser Antilles as a powerful hurricane, some of which go on to threaten the CONUS.

[TheStormExpert]

The North Atlantic vacuum has been turned on! This place should be a ghost town in a few days if trends continue. Enjoy the fish food!!

Too soon to write this off as a fish when it hasn't even exited Africa yet. The 12z EPS has some members threatening the Lesser Antilles as a powerful hurricane.

I’m not completely writing it off just yet, but if trends continue for another few runs then it might be a safe bet.

[SFLcane]

12Z EPS: not as threatening as the 0Z but still has a sizable SW camp of ~25% of the members that are threatening:

https://i.imgur.com/tPuZ4UM.png

Not as threatening... try again

[HurricaneBelle]

The North Atlantic vacuum has been turned on! This place should be a ghost town in a few days if trends continue. Enjoy the fish food!!

Too soon to write this off as a fish when it hasn't even exited Africa yet. The 12z EPS has some members threatening the Lesser Antilles as a powerful hurricane.

Many S2Kers can be a really manic/depressive lot, bouncing from model run to model run.

[cycloneye]

Who has the closeup image for Puerto Rico of the 12z Euro ensembles?

[SFLcane]

Who has the closeup image for Puerto Rico of the 12z Euro ensembles?

[DestinHurricane]

EPS has 2 groups. Those who get sucked behind Rene and those who don't.

Ridging remains strong, it's just a weakness created by the 2 TCs we currently have. The North Atlantic vacuum has by no means been turned on.

If future sally is slow and misses that weakness, it could mean trouble for the islands and potentially CONUS.

And it could very take the exit with rene, we just do not know at this time. Way too early to make all clear posts.

[SFLcane]

So 2 weeks from now it could be in the Bay of Campeche, or over by the Azores.

[Hurricane Jed]

The North Atlantic vacuum has been turned on! This place should be a ghost town in a few days if trends continue. Enjoy the fish food!!

Too soon to write this off as a fish when it hasn't even exited Africa yet. The 12z EPS has some members threatening the Lesser Antilles as a powerful hurricane.

I’m not completely writing it off just yet, but if trends continue for another few runs then it might be a safe bet.

Nothing is ever a safe bet in the tropics

[AutoPenalti]

Remember that one run where everybody though Laura would go OTS... we all know what happened thereafter.

[NDG]

12z EPS and 12z GEFS-Para both show a fairly wide spread ensemble members.
I guess it all depends when and where this system develops, further north and sooner a further north track, while a further south & west development would mean a further west track. Time will tell.

[ConvergenceZone]

Remember that one run where everybody though Laura would go OTS... we all know what happened thereafter.

I was guilty of that, but even then, there was a pretty dominant high pressure North of Laura, typical for August. I’m just not seeing any indication of a forecasted dominant high, unless I’m missing something?

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF: (Paulette & Rene excluded,not shown)
The thick line (labeled 'ECMF), is the operational,which has been jumping around, but the thin line, (which seems to be the mean of ensemble
members) has been fairly consistent from run to run. Still quite a wide spread after hr 120, which is to be expected. But less spread than GFS-Para:


most recurves range anywhere from 35W to 65W

12z EMCF 168 hour cones show slight northern progression over last 4 runs....

[SFLcane]

12z EPS and 12z GEFS-Para both show a fairly wide spread ensemble members.
I guess it all depends when and where this system develops, further north and sooner a further north track, while a further south & west development would mean a further west track. Time will tell.

https://i.imgur.com/as5SRiP.gif

Well given the GFS and UK and Euro deterministic all develop it and go fish I think I will go with that. We shall see