Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[CaribJam]

A question or 2 for the Pro's, for my clarity (and possible others)

It seems to be the view of some posters that the "soon to be formed system - Sally" will follow Rene.

What is likely to happen, if:
1. Rene remains weak for the next 12-36 hours;
2. Rene strengthens during the next 12 hours?

How far apart are these systems now (in hours)?

Thanks for the response.

[cheezyWXguy]

I wonder if there is any validity to the idea of the wave splitting, as was entertained by a couple model runs over the last few days. If that were to happen, essentially both paths could verify.

[otowntiger]

12z EPS and 12z GEFS-Para both show a fairly wide spread ensemble members.
I guess it all depends when and where this system develops, further north and sooner a further north track, while a further south & west development would mean a further west track. Time will tell.

https://i.imgur.com/as5SRiP.gif

agreed.

Well given the GFS and UK and Euro deterministic all develop it and go fish I think I will go with that. We shall see

This one is almost certain to be a fish and you can just about bet all of the rest of the CV systems for this year will be as well.

[toad strangler]

The North Atlantic vacuum has been turned on! This place should be a ghost town in a few days if trends continue. Enjoy the fish food!!

Yeah I don't do fish storms. If it ain't threatening terra firma I'm out. Don't judge me either. I don't make them

[SFLcane]

18z Gfs is way south and weaker...hmmm

[SFLcane]

Given what we have seen with Rene and Paulette, I'm not expecting to see "Sally" really intensify in the MDR.

[aspen]

18z Gfs is way south and weaker...hmmm

As a rule of thumb, south and weak means a wave/system will move more west, correct?

[Cat5James]

Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS

[tomatkins]

Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS

Looks similar to last time it had the low rider - it comes off the African coast as a larger gyre and the energy splits in two with the southern part being low enough in latitude to, so far not get pulled into the Paulette/Rene gyre.

[SFLcane]

Luis!!!

[cycloneye]

Is an outlier for now but.... I am paying atention.

[SFLcane]

Is an outlier for now but.... I am paying atention.

Outlier? This is not the icon. This is certainly a possibility.

[aspen]

Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS

Looks similar to last time it had the low rider - it comes off the African coast as a larger gyre and the energy splits in two with the southern part being low enough in latitude to, so far not get pulled into the Paulette/Rene gyre.

So what I’m taking away is that a broad wave/gyre has the chance to break into a southern and a northern system, while a more compact or quicker developing wave has a better chance of recurving as one system.

[toad strangler]

Is an outlier for now but.... I am paying atention.

Outlier? This is not the icon. This is certainly a possibility.

Operationals are fools gold this far out. #ensembles

[SFLcane]

Is an outlier for now but.... I am paying atention.

Outlier? This is not the icon. This is certainly a possibility.

Operationals are fools gold this far out. #ensembles

18z GEFS ensembles will be interesting.

[SFLcane]

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.postimg.cc/rwRxgzHB/D9791-FFD-426-B-435-A-930-A-071-D22889206.gif

Maybe I’ll hold off on writing this off.

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/q7kBq521/50791-F1-B-D94-B-4286-9-A46-89130-DAF1-DFB.gif

A SLOW moving beast into S FL. These days and years it's only on 300 plus hour maps

[Spacecoast]

After brief landfall(scrape) near St Lucie