Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#321 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:04 pm

About 960’s into South Florida. Will see what ensembles say in a bit.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#322 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:05 pm

I still think out to sea, but if I’m wrong, feel free to post a picture of a crow on a plate. I will own up to it...
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#323 Postby CaribJam » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is an outlier for now but.... :eek: I am paying atention.


And so do all of us in the Caribbean and further west...
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#324 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:08 pm

The reason the 18Z GFS goes into carib is because future sally is farther away from rene this run. As I have been saying, the big variable with future sally's track is interaction with rene. If the two do not interact then Sally could be a major problem for islands and possibly conus.

This is why you see 2 distinct groups of ensembles with little in between. One group interacts the other does not.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#325 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:11 pm

After WPB scrape, then into NC..
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#326 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:12 pm

Wait, so "fish storm" ISN'T a given? But the earlier models said... :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#327 Postby MetroMike » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:18 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Wait, so "fish storm" ISN'T a given? But the earlier models said... :lol:


Well its best for me to unsub from this thread, this is complete insanity and will come back once something evolves that is remotely interesting to track.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#328 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:19 pm

I feel much safer now that the GFS has made a direct hit on my house at 300 hours. It is normally the safest place to be. :hehe:

So far each run of the operations models feels like this... :yesno:

It was so much simpler when it was just the Euro vs GFS. Now the models are having Civil Wars with themselves on their different runs every six hours.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#329 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:23 pm

Kindly reminder that the wave literally hasn't left Africa yet.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#330 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:28 pm

I think it is an open wave.. :P Maybe we can get recon over to africa..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#331 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:29 pm

They won't call it an Invest until it leaves Africa? That said, given its long range to land, running short range models would have limited value if this was called 95L now.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#332 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:29 pm

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#333 Postby MidnightRain » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:30 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Kindly reminder that the wave literally hasn't left Africa yet.

I’ve been a lurker since the early 2000’s. A 16 page thread for a pre-invest disturbance that has not left Africa might be a first.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#334 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:They won't call it an Invest until it leaves Africa? That said, given its long range to land, running short range models would have limited value if this was called 95L now.


I see this thread locked very soon.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#335 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


Less of a curve north with the NHC shading because of that GFS run :eek:

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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#336 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:36 pm

18z GEFS - 0-144 Hr
Image

Compare to 12z
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#337 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:44 pm

aspen wrote:
tomatkins wrote:
Cat5James wrote:Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS

Looks similar to last time it had the low rider - it comes off the African coast as a larger gyre and the energy splits in two with the southern part being low enough in latitude to, so far not get pulled into the Paulette/Rene gyre.

So what I’m taking away is that a broad wave/gyre has the chance to break into a southern and a northern system, while a more compact or quicker developing wave has a better chance of recurving as one system.

Yes, that would seem to be the basic shape of it.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#338 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:50 pm

"Future Sally" seems to have a little yellow doppelganger. :double:

Argh, I don't want to call this "future Sally," not with all those other circles out there. Maybe that's why I'm in a hurry for this to be 95L. So we can actually have something to call it. :P
Last edited by AnnularCane on Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#339 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:50 pm

tomatkins wrote:
Cat5James wrote:Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS

Looks similar to last time it had the low rider - it comes off the African coast as a larger gyre and the energy splits in two with the southern part being low enough in latitude to, so far not get pulled into the Paulette/Rene gyre.


Not really, looking at the 850mb vort maps the first wave emerges in 18 hours and takes a while to develop (doesn't get going until 96 hours or so), with another wave emerging at around 72 hours and developing.

The biggest difference so far seems to be the GFS is keeping the storm weaker in the short term. This would yield a more western solution.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#340 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:52 pm

About to make the plunge:

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