Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
About 960’s into South Florida. Will see what ensembles say in a bit.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
I still think out to sea, but if I’m wrong, feel free to post a picture of a crow on a plate. I will own up to it...
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
cycloneye wrote:Is an outlier for now but....I am paying atention.
And so do all of us in the Caribbean and further west...
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
The reason the 18Z GFS goes into carib is because future sally is farther away from rene this run. As I have been saying, the big variable with future sally's track is interaction with rene. If the two do not interact then Sally could be a major problem for islands and possibly conus.
This is why you see 2 distinct groups of ensembles with little in between. One group interacts the other does not.
This is why you see 2 distinct groups of ensembles with little in between. One group interacts the other does not.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
Wait, so "fish storm" ISN'T a given? But the earlier models said... 

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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
AnnularCane wrote:Wait, so "fish storm" ISN'T a given? But the earlier models said...
Well its best for me to unsub from this thread, this is complete insanity and will come back once something evolves that is remotely interesting to track.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
I feel much safer now that the GFS has made a direct hit on my house at 300 hours. It is normally the safest place to be.
So far each run of the operations models feels like this...
It was so much simpler when it was just the Euro vs GFS. Now the models are having Civil Wars with themselves on their different runs every six hours.

So far each run of the operations models feels like this...

It was so much simpler when it was just the Euro vs GFS. Now the models are having Civil Wars with themselves on their different runs every six hours.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
Kindly reminder that the wave literally hasn't left Africa yet.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
I think it is an open wave..
Maybe we can get recon over to africa..

Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
They won't call it an Invest until it leaves Africa? That said, given its long range to land, running short range models would have limited value if this was called 95L now.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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- MidnightRain
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
supercane4867 wrote:Kindly reminder that the wave literally hasn't left Africa yet.
I’ve been a lurker since the early 2000’s. A 16 page thread for a pre-invest disturbance that has not left Africa might be a first.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
CrazyC83 wrote:They won't call it an Invest until it leaves Africa? That said, given its long range to land, running short range models would have limited value if this was called 95L now.
I see this thread locked very soon.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
cycloneye wrote:A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Less of a curve north with the NHC shading because of that GFS run


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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
aspen wrote:tomatkins wrote:Cat5James wrote:Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS
Looks similar to last time it had the low rider - it comes off the African coast as a larger gyre and the energy splits in two with the southern part being low enough in latitude to, so far not get pulled into the Paulette/Rene gyre.
So what I’m taking away is that a broad wave/gyre has the chance to break into a southern and a northern system, while a more compact or quicker developing wave has a better chance of recurving as one system.
Yes, that would seem to be the basic shape of it.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
"Future Sally" seems to have a little yellow doppelganger.
Argh, I don't want to call this "future Sally," not with all those other circles out there. Maybe that's why I'm in a hurry for this to be 95L. So we can actually have something to call it.

Argh, I don't want to call this "future Sally," not with all those other circles out there. Maybe that's why I'm in a hurry for this to be 95L. So we can actually have something to call it.

Last edited by AnnularCane on Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa
tomatkins wrote:Cat5James wrote:Future Sally ridin lowww on the 18Z GFS
Looks similar to last time it had the low rider - it comes off the African coast as a larger gyre and the energy splits in two with the southern part being low enough in latitude to, so far not get pulled into the Paulette/Rene gyre.
Not really, looking at the 850mb vort maps the first wave emerges in 18 hours and takes a while to develop (doesn't get going until 96 hours or so), with another wave emerging at around 72 hours and developing.
The biggest difference so far seems to be the GFS is keeping the storm weaker in the short term. This would yield a more western solution.
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