Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[Keldeo1997]

This would be devastating if this actually happened.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166147708944474/753405183018401933/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh306-384.gif

This would be devastating if this actually happened.

That would be typical 2020 if this actually happened. Good news is that it’s pure fantasy land, but the bad news is that future Sally’s westward track towards land masses in the Caribbean is not.

[SconnieCane]

Wouldn't be September without a >300 hour weenie run plowing a major into NYC (either before or after another into Miami). That's the GFS we all know and love.

[us89]

50/90 at 8 PM:

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave over west Africa has its axis roughly along
13W from 06N to 19N. It is expected to emerge off the coast of
west Africa on Thu. Large clusters of scattered moderate to
strong convection that are preceding the are increasing over
west Africa from 08N to 18N between 13W-18W. This activity
contains frequent lightning and strong gusty winds. Gradual
development is expected once the system moves over water, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours.

[gatorcane]

18Z GEFS parallel

[MarioProtVI]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166147708944474/753405183018401933/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh306-384.gif

This would be devastating if this actually happened.

Modern day David.

[caneseddy]

Our old friend Wxman57 did say on the Paulette thread that this one may be trouble down the road, so can't discount that.

He also stated the same thing about the wave that spawned Laura when it was splashing down while everyone was focused on Josephine.

[blp]

I check all day and most of the runs are OTS and then happy hour GFS come alive again like ole times to blast someone. What a year for the models. I have never seen so much flip flopping. I think they even broke Levi's site. He might need the flux capacitor to generate the 1.21 gigawatts to keep up.

[Visioen]

One thing's for sure, if this doesn't recurve STT's won't be holding it back. Cooler spots from previous storms completely erased already.

[aspen]

If future Sally does remain low and doesn't move north of 17.5-20N before reaching 45-50W, she could become an absolute monster. SSTs/OHC right before the Lesser Antilles could support a Dorian-like Cat 5, while a track north of the LAs/GAs will send Sally into waters more than capable of supporting a Cat 4+ storm. Sally could very easily become a powerful ACE generator as long as it doesn't immediately recurve into the cool eastern Atlantic at 40W, like some models are insistent on.

[Visioen]

If future Sally does remain low and doesn't move north of 17.5-20N before reaching 45-50W, she could become an absolute monster. SSTs/OHC right before the Lesser Antilles could support a Dorian-like Cat 5, while a track north of the LAs/GAs will send Sally into waters more than capable of supporting a Cat 4+ storm. Sally could very easily become a powerful ACE generator as long as it doesn't immediately recurve into the cool eastern Atlantic at 40W, like some models are insistent on.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

lol looks like we had the same idea at the exact same time

[plasticup]

18Z GEFS parallel

https://i.postimg.cc/B6tpLYGy/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-eatl-fh72-198.gif

Lol what a disagreement

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Should be an invest potentially tomorrow.

[ClarCari]

Should be an invest potentially tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/jzo5LDZ.gif

LOL might even be a TD potentially tomorrow! How often do systems skip being an Invest and straight to TD or TS out here?

[jaxfladude]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166147708944474/753405183018401933/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh306-384.gif

This would be devastating if this actually happened.

very unlikely to even be close to being right....but it's 2020 and it's the tropics so wait and see...

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON says very early E Atlantic recurve.

[floridasun78]

we going have alot guessing this area next 15 days i wait and see what going happen don't go crazy all models runs

[USTropics]

The key is we get two systems from the fractured wave on the past few GFS runs. Good news is, we can start to verify this in 48 hours, as this is when the 00z GFS forecasts this process to begin: