Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[Fancy1001]

The key is we get two systems from the fractured wave on the past few GFS runs. Good news is, we can start to verify this in 48 hours, as this is when the 00z GFS forecasts this process to begin:

https://i.ibb.co/2FzXbBq/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh24-84-1.gif

I have a feeling it will be running up floridas spine this run.

[Fancy1001]

CMC also seems to have the split.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS showing later development instead of quickly developing and recurving, resulting in a more western trek.

As of now, most computer models are showing a stronger system earlier.

[USTropics]

It's all about positioning and timing (when isn't it ). Models are pretty confident on weak ridging (highlighted in orange) building in underneath Rene in 3-4 days. GFS fractures the wave and spits part of it out towards the west quickly (purple), while the remaining axis slowly organizes (red). With the break in the ridge (blue), we end up with this southerly flow (yellow) at the upper-levels, but a easterly flow at the low levels (green). This basically cancels steering out, and the system towards the NE (again red) slowly drifts northwest over the course of 2-3 days.



Meanwhile, the energy that was ejected westward essentially has uniform easterly flow at all levels:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not seeing this "split" you guys are talking about. Looking at the v850mb maps the systems on the GFS are clearly two separate waves. NHC agrees with this and has two separate waves mentioned on the TWO over Africa with the potential for development.

[Fancy1001]

I'm not seeing this "split" you guys are talking about. Looking at the v850mb maps the systems on the GFS are clearly two separate waves. NHC agrees with this and has two separate waves mentioned on the TWO over Africa with the potential for development.

Oh ok, it looked like one large wave at first, not two separate ones.

[Keldeo1997]

If anything gets into the Caribbean it will probably get strong with borderline duel Channels. That's if the UL's verify

[lsuhurricane]

With an eastern US ridge block developing on this run, the end result may not look pretty

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS and Canadian are nearly identical at 210hrs







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[Fancy1001]

I'm curious to see if the euro ends up with a similar solution to the gfs and cmc runs.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS looks like Laura if it went South of the GA's. Jamaica might get a direct hit on this run

[Hurricaneman]

GFS looks like Laura if it went South of the GA's. Jamaica might get a direct hit on this run

Maybe a Charley or Ivan type run, many days until possible landfall in the Lesser Antilles if at all

[Fancy1001]

GFS looks like Laura if it went South of the GA's. Jamaica might get a direct hit on this run

Maybe a Charley or Ivan type run, many days until possible landfall in the Lesser Antilles if at all

This model looks like a classic september cat 5 set up.

[Keldeo1997]

This run is a Copy Paste of Laura except we have long tracked Major and off the Mountains

[Hurricaneman]

Ridge breaks down at 300 hrs, may be a track to either Pensacola to Tampa, will have to see if the Euro joins suit or if the GFS continues to show a southern track

Stay tuned to as the cyclone turns

[USTropics]

I'm not seeing this "split" you guys are talking about. Looking at the v850mb maps the systems on the GFS are clearly two separate waves. NHC agrees with this and has two separate waves mentioned on the TWO over Africa with the potential for development.

Partly correct, we do have some merging of a wave behind this one essentially. It's really a perturbation of the original wave axis, but fracture would be pretty close.

You can follow the wind barbs at 700mb (mid-levels) to get a better idea. Here is the analyzed 00z GFS with the first wave axis highlighted in purple and the other wave axis highlighted in green:


24 hours later, we start to see the northern axis split off (purtple) and dive towards the SW at the mid-levels, the lower axis of the wave (red) is still there, we can see it in the mid-level wind barbs. Meanwhile, the wave axis behind (green) will start to rotate over the top of the leftover wave axis and they essentially merge.



Here is the loop of that process. Again, this is ONE model solution of a very complex evolution, we'll see if it gets any support from the ECMWF/ensembles:

[Hurricaneman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_50.png

This run is a Copy Paste of Laura except we have long tracked Major and off the Mountains

Looks kind of like Charley or Ivan, need to watch to see if the GFS continues to show a southern route in future runs or heads towards the Euro

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_50.png

This run is a Copy Paste of Laura except we have long tracked Major and off the Mountains

That is one massive hurricane.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well between the 18z and the 00z GFS as well as the CMC, I’d say that business on old Storm2k is about to pick back up again. Those runs will get the S2K’ers talking.


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[Ubuntwo]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_50.png

This run is a Copy Paste of Laura except we have long tracked Major and off the Mountains

That is one massive hurricane.

indeed.