Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[Fancy1001]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_50.png

This run is a Copy Paste of Laura except we have long tracked Major and off the Mountains

That is one massive hurricane.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485131981043269632/753481010708086825/gfs_2020-09-10-00Z_336_31.png
indeed.

That's one BIG eye.

[Keldeo1997]

Landfall North of Tampa

[SouthFLTropics]

Landfall North of Tampa

Homosassa and Crystal River area. Storm that size would bring massive surge to that part of Florida. They had major surge flooding due to Hermine.


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[Hypercane_Kyle]

We'll have to see if the Euro holds on to the idea of the storm developing at a faster rate.

00z CMC and GFS both do not show this system developing until a few days later.

[Visioen]

Seriously, splitting waves? That should be illegal.

We need something like a Non-Proliferation Treaty.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later today. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[jaxfladude]

Please say this is still "In Fantasy-land" and not a start of a model(s) trend......

[Fancy1001]

I've got a bad feeling about the Euro.

[USTropics]

ECMWF at 48 hours, you can see the reflection in wind barbs to the west that low-level circulation is trying to form there:


To illustrate again, pink circle is the energy perturbation from the red wave axis, green wave axis should rotate towards the NW here (as a separate system).

[Keldeo1997]

Uhh oh the Euro is already looking ugly for the LA's

[WeatherEmperor]

Through 96hrs the Euro and GFS are very similar





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[SFLcane]

00z euro is faster and further south will more then likely enter the Caribbean here joining the gfs, cmc.

[northjaxpro]

00Z EURO joining the GFS and CMC regarding potential Sally. A very ominous harbinger down the road...

[SFLcane]

Can’t escape north here....

[jaxfladude]

00Z EURO joining the GFS and CMC regarding potential Sally. A very ominous harbinger down the road...

Gulf eastern? unlike Laura? and just as strong or worse wind/intensity wise? scary

[SFLcane]

And into the Caribbean she goes... potential “ Sally”

[SFLcane]

EPS will certainly not be pretty.

[northjaxpro]

It is beginning to appear that our reliable models are starting to.pick up on the strong +NAO teleconnection index which has been forecasted since the start of September.

My big concerns down the road are beginining to manifest going into the 10 day range.

[northjaxpro]

00Z EURO joining the GFS and CMC regarding potential Sally. A very ominous harbinger down the road...

Gulf eastern? unlike Laura? and just as strong or worse wind/intensity wise? scary

Way too soon to lock in specifically. So much will depend on the forward speed and intensity of the cyclone then interaction with the Greater Antilles down the road. But, no doubt things are about to get very busy for me and my other colleagues in this industry that is for darn sure.

[SFLcane]

Coming north and intensifying likely another David 79 kinda track here.