Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[Hurricaneman]

How good are conditions expected to be in the gulf? We don't need another storm RIing in there

Besides only moderate/weak shear thru next few days in the Western Gulf by lower Texas,...Pretty Good I’m afraid :/

The shear in the Eastern Mid-Atlantic looks like it’s easing up too some. This next week could be crazy..

Not good... Welcome to September 2020

Looks like it’s in its formative stages, such hurricanes or tropical storms started in this area and even looked like this in this area such as

Labor Day 1935
Erin 1995
Edouard 2002
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
Hermine 2016
Julia 2016
Gordon 2018

I’m expecting this to develop before Florida I think something similar to Gordon or Julia is most likely from that list

[ElectricStorm]

Besides only moderate/weak shear thru next few days in the Western Gulf by lower Texas,...Pretty Good I’m afraid :/

The shear in the Eastern Mid-Atlantic looks like it’s easing up too some. This next week could be crazy..

Not good... Welcome to September 2020

Looks like it’s in its formative stages, such hurricanes or tropical storms started in this area and even looked like this in this area such as

Labor Day 1935
Erin 1995
Edouard 2002
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
Hermine 2016
Julia 2016
Gordon 2018

I’m expecting this to develop before Florida I think something similar to Gordon or Julia is most likely from that list

Gordon or Julia would certainly be better than some of those other storms on that list but they still had impacts of their own. Hopefully it won't do much, especially in the areas already devastated by Laura

[caneman]

Not good... Welcome to September 2020

Looks like it’s in its formative stages, such hurricanes or tropical storms started in this area and even looked like this in this area such as

Labor Day 1935
Erin 1995
Edouard 2002
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
Hermine 2016
Julia 2016
Gordon 2018

I’m expecting this to develop before Florida I think something similar to Gordon or Julia is most likely from that list

Gordon or Julia would certainly be better than some of those other storms on that list but they still had impacts of their own. Hopefully it won't do much, especially in the areas already devastated by Laura

2 different forecasters in the Tampa Bay area seem to think it may develop in the Eastern Gulf. Will need to watch it

[GCANE]

ICON keeps this spinning around in the GoM for quite some time.
Spends a lot of time in the W GoM around the chronic high CAPE pool.
Also, upper troposphere is beginning to cool down.
A deadly combination for intensification.
Stay tuned.

[us89]

Up to 0/30 on the 8 AM TWO:

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas is
associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is
forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on
Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[boca]

This system has that popcorn look right now which was alluded to yesterday when it’s in it’s formative stages.

[northjaxpro]

This system is slowly getting its act together. Once it traverses the Gulf Stream and taps into those bath ssts when the trough axis passes through the Bahamas tomorrow, and approaches the Southeast Florida Coast, this system has the potential to begin to bloosom.
.

[NDG]

Vorticity continues to increase little by little, this disturbance has a lot of moisture to work with along with a light shear environment once it gets closer to FL and into the GOM next week. It will bring heavy rainfall total to FL this weekend.
It has increased model support for at least weak development. It will be interesting if both systems develop in the GOM. It will be shortly before this becomes an invest.

[northjaxpro]

Vorticity continues to increase little by little, this disturbance has a lot of moisture to work with along with a light shear environment once it gets closer to FL and into the GOM next week. It will bring heavy rainfall total to FL this weekend.
It has increased model support for at least weak development. It will be interesting if both systems develop in the GOM. It will be shortly before this becomes an invest.

https://i.imgur.com/CWtg75A.gif
https://i.imgur.com/ECF6wkz.png
https://i.imgur.com/4dk17Cn.gif

Just simply lacking deep convection. Once that starts, it is all systems go with this disturbance.

[Aric Dunn]

the spotty convection will help push vorticity up into the 850 mb range but it wont be enough to develop a surface circ.

needs a few sustained convective burst somewhere along the trough axis to do that.

[northjaxpro]

the spotty convection will help push vorticity up into the 850 mb range but it wont be enough to develop a surface circ.

needs a few sustained convective burst somewhere along the trough axis to do that.

I think Aric that the convective bursts will begin within the next 24-36 hours. It will be a gradual process. It will begin to really organize once it gets ino the Southeast /Eastern GOM by Sunday into Monday.

[Aric Dunn]

the spotty convection will help push vorticity up into the 850 mb range but it wont be enough to develop a surface circ.

needs a few sustained convective burst somewhere along the trough axis to do that.

I think Aric that the convective bursts will begin within the next 24-36 hours. It will be a gradual process. It will begin to really organize once it gets ino the Southeast /Eastern GOM by Sunday into Monday.

The potential is definitely there. A little wave break ( friction) would help bahamas maybe.. but florida should help.

[NDG]

the spotty convection will help push vorticity up into the 850 mb range but it wont be enough to develop a surface circ.

needs a few sustained convective burst somewhere along the trough axis to do that.

I'm sure land interaction will help in the development of a surface circulation as it usually does.

[SFLcane]

the spotty convection will help push vorticity up into the 850 mb range but it wont be enough to develop a surface circ.

needs a few sustained convective burst somewhere along the trough axis to do that.

I'm sure land interaction will help in the development of a surface circulation as it usually does.

https://i.imgur.com/g2YsSuX.gif

Maybe a weak TS before FL? I certainly think it’s possible

[NDG]

the spotty convection will help push vorticity up into the 850 mb range but it wont be enough to develop a surface circ.

needs a few sustained convective burst somewhere along the trough axis to do that.

I'm sure land interaction will help in the development of a surface circulation as it usually does.

https://i.imgur.com/g2YsSuX.gif

Maybe a weak TS before FL? I certainly think it’s possible

Certainly possible, we have seen the gulf stream do its magic before, but most likely in the eastern GOM.

[aspen]

I don't like how models are showing this stick around for a while in the Gulf. Definitely raises a few eyebrows, since SSTs have just about completely recovered since Laura and we've seen RI twice in the Gulf this year, one of which (Hanna) that was horribly predicted by the globals.

[NDG]

I don't like how models are showing this stick around for a while in the Gulf. Definitely raises a few eyebrows, since SSTs have just about completely recovered since Laura and we've seen RI twice in the Gulf this year, one of which (Hanna) that was horribly predicted by the globals.

A couple of GEPS ensemble members along with a couple of GEFS-Para show this becoming a hurricane in the northern GOM, something I would keep in mind when considering that it will have a moist environment along with a very light shear environment & very warm waters.

[us89]

I don't like how models are showing this stick around for a while in the Gulf. Definitely raises a few eyebrows, since SSTs have just about completely recovered since Laura and we've seen RI twice in the Gulf this year, one of which (Hanna) that was horribly predicted by the globals.

Even if SSTs have fully recovered, the sub-surface waters largely have not. Note especially the large cool wake north of the Yucatan Channel:



If this were to intensify in the GOM, it would upwell substantially cooler water relatively quickly.

[TheStormExpert]

You do have to wonder if this could snag the name Sally before the wave that just emerged Africa?

[aspen]

You do have to wonder if this could snag the name Sally before the wave that just emerged Africa?

That would mean major hurricane Teddy would be on its way. Imagine a monstrous long tracking Cat 4/5 hurricane named Teddy. You can’t get much more of a juxtaposition than that.