Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[pgoss11]

Anyone know why the 06z gfs hasn’t posted on Tropical Tidbits yet?

[aspen]

The 00z GFS, Euro, and CMC all show the same solution: this wave remains broad and doesn’t develop until 3-4 days out, where it’s able to stay south and bomb out as it enters the Caribbean. Another TC develops to the northeast during that same 3-4 day time frame.

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

Ugh, that’s ugly SFLCane. Bad for the entire state, including Lake Okeechobee. That would potentially send surge from the lake into the City of Okeechobee. And it puts Metro South Florida on the dirty side of the storm.


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[Do_For_Love]

Looks like this one will probably end up with a few hundred pages in its thread when it finally forms, lol...

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone know why the 06z gfs hasn’t posted on Tropical Tidbits yet?

Tidbits has been struggling with the GFS for the past day or so. Think it has to do with something on the NCEP servers.


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[us89]

Surprised this hasn’t been given an invest designation yet, especially now that it’s over water

[SFLcane]

Surprised this hasn’t been given an invest designation yet, especially now that it’s over water

Only a matter of time... Sometime today most likely

[toad strangler]

That's such a sensitive angle of approach as we all remember from Irma. No way models nail that even 72 hours out let alone 10 plus days. This could end up 500 plus miles east of FL just the same as it could end up 500 plus miles west of FL.

[SFLcane]

Ugh, that’s ugly SFLCane. Bad for the entire state, including Lake Okeechobee. That would potentially send surge from the lake into the City of Okeechobee. And it puts Metro South Florida on the dirty side of the storm.


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Yea these troughs this time of the year can be a problem if something gets in the caribbean for Florida.

[Cat5James]

Model agreement this far out... Concerning to say the least

[Blown Away]

Ugh, that’s ugly SFLCane. Bad for the entire state, including Lake Okeechobee. That would potentially send surge from the lake into the City of Okeechobee. And it puts Metro South Florida on the dirty side of the storm.


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Yea these troughs this time of the year can be a problem if something gets in the caribbean for Florida.

Typically those ridge breaks happen between 70-85W, which is why Fl is always a high target.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's such a sensitive angle of approach as we all remember from Irma. No way models nail that even 72 hours out let alone 10 plus days. This could end up 500 plus miles east of FL just the same as it could end up 500 plus miles west of FL.

This is very true. We have a long way to go with this one.


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[SFLcane]

Look at development cone now..

[Emmett_Brown]

With potentially 4 TC's in the basin at once, we should be prepared for way more than normal model swings due to subtle differences in position and intensity. Also, I think the GOM is still in play for a while.

[cycloneye]

Surprised this hasn’t been given an invest designation yet, especially now that it’s over water

At any moment today it will be 95L.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's such a sensitive angle of approach as we all remember from Irma. No way models nail that even 72 hours out let alone 10 plus days. This could end up 500 plus miles east of FL just the same as it could end up 500 plus miles west of FL.

This is very true. We have a long way to go with this one.


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[SFLcane]

Ugh, that’s ugly SFLCane. Bad for the entire state, including Lake Okeechobee. That would potentially send surge from the lake into the City of Okeechobee. And it puts Metro South Florida on the dirty side of the storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea these troughs this time of the year can be a problem if something gets in the caribbean for Florida.

Typically those ridge breaks happen between 70-85W, which is why Fl is always a high target.

If it gets in the caribbean i am fairly confident it will get turned Northwestward at some point. Caribbean storms this time of the year no bueno for FL.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1304027987822686209

[SFLcane]

Impressive!