Disturbance in the Western GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[StPeteMike]

To separate this discussion from the thread about the MLL south of 94L.

[Aric Dunn]

Watching closely. broad rotation and continued convection. Surface obs show a very sharp trough axis.

shear is dropping fast.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a distinct broad circulation.. a little more sustained convection and might be something to really watch.

shear is dropping like a rock.

once land heating ends .. overnight convection may try to jump start this..

[Dean4Storms]

Actually some rotation this morning in the NE GOM to the NW of Tampa. Convection there has waned for the time being but you can still see a rotation with what is still there on radar. Of course it’s not at the surface but if convection builds and sustains that could change.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually some rotation this morning in the NE GOM to the NW of Tampa. Convection there has waned for the time being but you can still see a rotation with what is still there on radar. Of course it’s not at the surface but if convection builds and sustains that could change.

Was just going to mention that..

at the surface, it is a very sharp trough axis per surface obs.

the circulation is about 925 to 850mb.

ao a little more convection and that would work to the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

eastern Gulf where this low is developing..

[cycloneye]

Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Still have this prononced vorticity spinning in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning and convection has regenerted around it once more. This is definitely a potential sleeper. Yeah, we are at the climatological peak of the season today right?

Mother Nature today is definitely letting us know it is the peak of the season with all of the activity on the North Atlantic basin!

[tailgater]

Yep my Bday today, is the peak, so down hill from here on out(lol).
The Atlantic looks like it has some creepy affliction

[NDG]

We could have the two tropical systems in the GOM at the same time according to the Euro ensembles that we didn't have with Marco and Laura.

[plasticup]

We could have the two tropical systems in the GOM at the same time according to the Euro ensembles that we didn't have with Marco and Laura.

https://i.imgur.com/4dk17Cn.gif

Neither look particularly scary though. Might be good to release some of that oceanic heat content before a real storm arrives.

[BigB0882]

Is either one expected to move towards the North Central Gulf coast? Maybe the one developing to the south? I only ask because we could use some rain and, for now, it doesn't appear it would be anything strong enough to worry about wind-wise.

[GCANE]

Its a circus and lemons are being juggled.

Anyway, likely closed circulation at 700mb

[GCANE]

Anticyclone in place

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0120 PM EDT THU 10 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE
AT 13/0000Z NEAR 27.0N 58.5W.
B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 26.0N 86.0W FOR 12/1800Z.

[GCANE]

Highly unstable air, CAPE = 4000, moving off FL and into the E GoM

[La Breeze]

Yep my Bday today, is the peak, so down hill from here on out(lol).
The Atlantic looks like it has some creepy affliction
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Happy Birthday Tailgater. Watching the GOM in between repairing and cleaning from Laura. Please keep us posted.

[GCANE]

850mb vort quickly developing

[us89]

This is currently rated at 10/20 on the TWO:

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has diminished since earlier today, some slow development
of this system is possible while it moves westward and then
southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Extratropical94]

10/30 currently

Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.