Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[tomatkins]

Isn’t this the same GFS many were considering a “trash” model not too long ago? Now we are discussing specific impacts to Florida the model is showing from a wave that is just exiting Africa? The wave is concerning and needs to be watched but being in the target zone of nearly a 300 hour GFS run no matter how consistent is the place to be.

100% accurate. The GFS loves to destroy places with 300 hour fantasy storms. Looking more recently 5 day tracks from the NHC shows the same flavor. Early tracks showed significant impacts to the tampa bay area from Dorian, this year's storm "I" and...Laura. We got nothing from all 3. If 5 day tracks from the pros are prone to strike outs then 10+ day model runs should be looked at as nothing other than entertainment. Something might happen...or not. But it is certainly worth watching. focusing on specific solutions...just not worth it. Laura ended up all the way on the other side of the Gulf from initial expectations.

I dont think anyone is taking this literally, just discussing a what if. The main thing is - this is I think the 4th run in a row for the GFS that shows this kind of track - the details are just for entertainment right now. Also, its basically the only thing going on that might impact non-Bermuda land, so its gonna get dissected regardless of whether anyone actually believes the results.

[WxEp]

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and
a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early
next week while the system moves generally westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Cat5James]

12z GFS Ensembles strongly favor an intense hurricane recurving away from the Eastern seaboard.

where can we find these?

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS 0-144 hr:

[SFLcane]

[ColdMiser123]

The Euro is about 6 degrees latitude east of 0z at the same time stamp, should show a recurve this run.

[ColdMiser123]

We will know which outcome is the correct one within a couple days.

[Nimbus]

The Euro is about 6 degrees latitude east of 0z at the same time stamp, should show a recurve this run.

Its fairly far south initially though might be an ITCZ suckling and move farther west before the spin up.

[TheStormExpert]

Rene might pull it north this run of the Euro. Literally this time yesterday it was smelling fishy and it could trend that way again.

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO smells awfully fishy - Started Moving NW @ 120hrs

[aspen]

Rene might pull it north this run of the Euro. Literally this time yesterday it was smelling fishy and it could trend that way again.

If Rene isn’t able to intensify much, I don’t think it’ll try to draw future Sally north. It did get up to 45 kt today but its satellite presentation has somewhat degraded, and it only has 1.5-2 days before shear rips it apart.

[ColdMiser123]

Between hours 48 and 72 where it barely moves makes all the difference this run.

[SFLcane]

Euro- And off she goes ...

[TheStormExpert]

Rene might pull it north this run of the Euro. Literally this time yesterday it was smelling fishy and it could trend that way again.

If Rene isn’t able to intensify much, I don’t think it’ll try to draw future Sally north. It did get up to 45 kt today but its satellite presentation has somewhat degraded, and it only has 1.5-2 days before shear rips it apart.

Even if it doesn’t intensity it still could loop south and create a weakness if future Sally moves slower than expected as what the 12z Euro is showing. I’d give this more credit than what the last four runs of the GFS is showing as both Paulette and Rene are taking their sweet old time getting anywhere.

[Aric Dunn]

Too much interaction with Rene and that birth defect to its NE...

next run please..

[TheStormExpert]

Ridge is quickly eroding at 144hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

Too much interaction with Rene and that birth defect to its NE...

next run please..

What birth defect?

[DestinHurricane]

Too much interaction with Rene and that birth defect to its NE...

next run please..

Agreed. Doubtful rene will stick around that long. Ensembles more important right now.

[plasticup]

EURO with a solid recurve at 168 hours, well east of the islands

[TheStormExpert]

Too much interaction with Rene and that birth defect to its NE...

next run please..

Agreed. Doubtful rene will stick around that long. Ensembles more important right now.

Rene looping around was talked about several days ago even by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan. Let’s not dismiss this run just yet. The 18z GFS will HOPEFULLY be a trend breaker, though that model as sucked all season.