Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[Shell Mound]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

The strongest members of the EPS all show OTS. At this point I think there is a good chance that this AEW will intensify fairly quickly.

[TheStormExpert]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

A recurve is almost always heavily favored as it’s climatology. Stop -removed-! Besides 2/3 or the EPS favors a recurve now over the last several days.

[SFLcane]

12z Eps is well NE...GFS will probably recurve later tonight. The trend “ today” has been out to sea

[SouthFLTropics]

So we trade Sally in for the remnants of Rene on that 12z Euro. FUN TIMES!!!

[DestinHurricane]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

A recurve is almost always heavily favored as it’s climatology. Stop -removed-! Besides 2/3 or the EPS favors a recurve now over the last several days.

33% show a Caribbean solution and that is more than enough to know that it's a strong possibility, especially considering the recurves are from TC interaction.

I am not -removed-, i'm just following the data. Clinging to climo is not a forecast.

[gatorcane]

It is clearly a complicated setup with multiple TCs in the Central Atlantic not to mention the possibility of two entities spinning off from this wave, one heading NW and another heading more west. One thing is for sure. If it makes it under the ridge over the Central Atlantic at a low latitude and finds a way more west, it could be big trouble down the road in my opinion. A TC in the Caribbean in mid September is no bueno.

[toad strangler]

12z Eps is well NE...GFS will probably recurve later tonight. The trend “ today” has been out to sea

I had thought the GFS was itching to re-curve post Hispaniola...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

A recurve is almost always heavily favored as it’s climatology. Stop -removed-! Besides 2/3 or the EPS favors a recurve now over the last several days.

This is such an asinine post. Climo is important but if you have 3-4 storms interacting with each other they're going to create a unique steering environment that cannot be accounted for solely by climatology.

[SFLcane]

It’s the climo favored solution.

[ConvergenceZone]

12z Eps is well NE...GFS will probably recurve later tonight. The trend “ today” has been out to sea

Awesome News! Phew!!!

[TheStormExpert]

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

A recurve is almost always heavily favored as it’s climatology. Stop -removed-! Besides 2/3 or the EPS favors a recurve now over the last several days.

33% show a Caribbean solution and that is more than enough to know that it's a strong possibility, especially considering the recurves are from TC interaction.

I am not -removed-, i'm just following the data. Clinging to climo is not a forecast.

We will see who’s right in a few days!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It’s the climo favored solution.

Just like how it was the favored solution for Laura to dissipate over Hispaniola?

That's what the Euro said, after all.

[Emmett_Brown]

The model recurves for this new AEW, future Sally, have been due to interactions with the other storms, not the prevailing background steering pattern. For fun, take a look at the recent track runs for Rene; that thing is looping and curving all over the place depending on the run you pick.

[Aric Dunn]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

A recurve is almost always heavily favored as it’s climatology. Stop -removed-! Besides 2/3 or the EPS favors a recurve now over the last several days.

He is not -removed-.

he is taking an objective view ( unlike others) to the model solutions showing unlikely interactions with multiple other systems ( some likely phantom) and tracks that 99 percent of time do not happen.. Sure climatology would say expect a recurve in AN IDEAL Situation.. this is not an Ideal statistical situation. So claiming that a recurve is likely because of climatology is foolish with the current situation.

So the 2/3 of the EPS that show recurve also show an unlikely interaction with both rene and another vorticity that develops within the envelope of soon to be 95L.

which means, although a recurve is favored because climatology says thats what has happened.. that is not the reason for the recurve with the models.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Eps is well NE...GFS will probably recurve later tonight. The trend “ today” has been out to sea

Awesome News! Phew!!!

Awesome for now. One run doesn’t make a trend but like some have said the UKMET and the CMC have a similar solution to the Euro on their 12z runs so it’s worth considering.

[FireRat]

Guys really? Yeah climo usually favors OTS this deep into September, but it's 2020. How about we wait until an invest is declared, and better yet wait until we do have a named storm. I would wishcast for an OTS myself, the islands don't need another hurricane especially this year and so soon after Irma/Maria.

The threat is there, the cannonball is being shot out of Africa, now we wait and see how the trajectory will go. I guess based on the preliminary model estimates, there's a 2/3 chance it will be a fish storm, and well you know the other 1/3... which is kinda significant enough to not take too lightly. Hopefully in the days ahead we'll see if indeed Sally/Teddy becomes a fish, and a big fish at that.

Then again, this situation is more complex with so many systems out there, so naturally this could be screwing with the models on track a bit. A better track modeling will come once the storm is more organized, so again too soon to say where it will go and we just gotta patiently watch it and see what becomes clearer down the road.

[TheStormExpert]

HOPEFULLY an invest tag isn’t too far off as I’d like to see some model guidance and the hurricane models run.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

What's taking them so long.

[sma10]

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.

A recurve is almost always heavily favored as it’s climatology. Stop -removed-! Besides 2/3 or the EPS favors a recurve now over the last several days.

He is not -removed-.

he is taking an objective view ( unlike others) to the model solutions showing unlikely interactions with multiple other systems ( some likely phantom) and tracks that 99 percent of time do not happen.. Sure climatology would say expect a recurve in AN IDEAL Situation.. this is not an Ideal statistical situation. So claiming that a recurve is likely because of climatology is foolish with the current situation.

So the 2/3 of the EPS that show recurve also show an unlikely interaction with both rene and another vorticity that develops within the envelope of soon to be 95L.

which means, although a recurve is favored because climatology says thats what has happened.. that is not the reason for the recurve with the models.

There's a reason the NHC doesn't use CLIPER model anymore for forecasting.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS ensembles loop, a lot head far to the west: