FireRat wrote:Guys really? Yeah climo usually favors OTS this deep into September, but it's 2020. How about we wait until an invest is declared, and better yet wait until we do have a named storm. I would wishcast for an OTS myself, the islands don't need another hurricane especially this year and so soon after Irma/Maria.
The threat is there, the cannonball is being shot out of Africa, now we wait and see how the trajectory will go. I guess based on the preliminary model estimates, there's a 2/3 chance it will be a fish storm, and well you know the other 1/3... which is kinda significant enough to not take too lightly. Hopefully in the days ahead we'll see if indeed Sally/Teddy becomes a fish, and a big fish at that.
Then again, this situation is more complex with so many systems out there, so naturally this could be screwing with the models on track a bit. A better track modeling will come once the storm is more organized, so again too soon to say where it will go and we just gotta patiently watch it and see what becomes clearer down the road.
Yup 1/3 is certainly significant. As I like to think of it - an outcome with a 1/3 probability is the same as a career .333 player getting a base hit (i.e. not that much of a long shot)
