Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[NDG]

Hour 186 and the 591mb high returns and bridges to the GOM. Trap door closed.

It sure does, closed door.

[toad strangler]

Crash and burn...

https://i.imgur.com/HnbZaaH.png

yep, and the way that the ridge has POURED in it looks like another spine runner.

[SouthFLTropics]

Once again we play the same game. If this makes it to the islands, the Greater Antilles are the big X factor.

[cheezyWXguy]

This runs builds Paulette into about the craziest ET storm I’ve ever seen in the Atlantic, 936mb headed into Greenland

[ColdMiser123]

Early on in the forecast you could tell that this would still be west enough to pose problems for the islands on the 18z GFS. 18z Euro will still be able to tell us a lot even with it only going out to hour 90.

Do the ensembles go out to 144?

Yes, 6z/18z EPS do go out to 144, so that should tell us even more about potential spread and uncertainty.

[SFLcane]

Once again we play the same game. If this makes it to the islands, the Greater Antilles are the big X factor.

As the 12z run showed this being likely a major hurricane potentially will survive the islands.

[SouthFLTropics]

Shortwave coming...May start to turn more poleward upon leaving Hispaniola.

EDIT: Yep, trap door open!!!

[toad strangler]

FWIW ridge breaking down at 18z GFS 234hrs and moving NW ... looking a bit re-curvy

[Shell Mound]

Shortwave coming...May start to turn more poleward upon leaving Hispaniola.

EDIT: Yep, trap door open!!!

https://i.imgur.com/6LxC0Lr.png

If this were to reach the latitude of the Antilles, I would prefer a track to their north vs. over or south of them. Hispaniola and Puerto Rico have had enough.

[AutoPenalti]

Right, so once again we are back to the “no trough, where did you go?” runs.

I get that people like to favor climo a lot, but this year has been anything but that. As much interaction as there is between Paulette and Rene, it will mean so much down the road for future Sally.

These runs can ultimately target Bermuda or even go OTS tomorrow. The main thing to grasp is how each model is handling the surrounding environment, which unfortunately isn’t doing that well in the short term.

[toad strangler]

Shortwave coming...May start to turn more poleward upon leaving Hispaniola.

EDIT: Yep, trap door open!!!

https://i.imgur.com/6LxC0Lr.png

If this were to reach the latitude of the Antilles, I would prefer a track to their north vs. over or south of them. Hispaniola and Puerto Rico have had enough.

Of course. That goes without having to say no? It's not our choice So we just observe.

[NDG]

Hour 186 and the 591mb high returns and bridges to the GOM. Trap door closed.

It sure does, closed door.

Never mind, my feelings that it was going to head towards the Bahamas on this run was right after all, lol.

[ColdMiser123]

It will be tough for this to miss the US completely if it ends up going into the Caribbean. Even weaknesses in the ridge farther north will only cause the system to bend more WNW, since it is farther away from the weakness to the south.

[SouthFLTropics]

Boy the 18z GFS sure knows how to keep you in suspense. Stuck at 234.

[NDG]

Past 144 hrs there's going to be every scenario possible on each run for the US until we get within 168-120 hrs range, lol.

[WeatherEmperor]

Will it miss FL and end up in the Carolinas?




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[Nimbus]

FWIW ridge breaking down at 18z GFS 234hrs and moving NW ... looking a bit re-curvy

At hour 258 it looks like the eyewall will miss Miami how reassuring.
So this run the models are trying a scenario where the ridge *does* build back in behind Paulette.

[Keldeo1997]

This run seems like a Combo of Maria and Matthew with some David sprinkled in there

[SouthFLTropics]

Past 144 hrs there's going to be every scenario possible on each run for the US until we get within 168-120 hrs range, lol.

I suppose an argument could be made as to why it is even worth having models that go out to 384 hours??? Do we gain any significant info from them???

[SFLcane]

Modern 1979 Hurricane David