ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

Girls really are tougher than boys.

[ElectricStorm]

Girls really are tougher than boys.

Dorian would like a word with you

[AnnularCane]

Girls really are tougher than boys.

Dorian would like a word with you

Tell Dorian to hold his horses, I'm already being lectured by Andrew.

[aspen]

Girls really are tougher than boys.

Dorian would like a word with you

Tell Dorian to hold his horses, I'm already being lectured by Andrew.

Allen has something to say too.

[SootyTern]

Dorian would like a word with you

Tell Dorian to hold his horses, I'm already being lectured by Andrew.

Allen has something to say too.

Camille, Katrina, Rita, Irma and Maria would like to tell all you boys to sit down

[ElectricStorm]

Dorian would like a word with you

Tell Dorian to hold his horses, I'm already being lectured by Andrew.

Allen has something to say too.

And Gilbert

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing that Recon will be needed by Saturday? That would be a long flight from St. Croix though.

[CrazyC83]

Paulette is doing better with 40 kt of shear than Rene is with 10 kt of shear.

If Paulette is doing so well right now, I could certainly see it becoming a major hurricane once it gets into prime conditions. Shades of Florence who fought off 40 kt of shear quite well too.

[cfisher]

Paulette is doing better with 40 kt of shear than Rene is with 10 kt of shear.

The shear might be enhancing divergence as well.

[plasticup]

I'm guessing that Recon will be needed by Saturday? That would be a long flight from St. Croix though.

Don’t they sometimes fly out of Bermuda?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Girls really are tougher than boys.

Dorian would like a word with you

Isabel says
"Hold my beer"

[aspen]

Paulette is doing better with 40 kt of shear than Rene is with 10 kt of shear.

If Paulette is doing so well right now, I could certainly see it becoming a major hurricane once it gets into prime conditions. Shades of Florence who fought off 40 kt of shear quite well too.

Paulette certainly has given me Florence vibes, but even more so when the official NHC forecast track showed NW motion becoming W/WNW and then changing to NW. Still, this is a storm that became stronger than anticipated in the near term (although not to the same degree as Flo) before heavy shear kicked in, and it’s likely to rapidly intensify once shear lessens.

[Ubuntwo]

Wow. Never seen ASCAT this high with a tropical storm considering undersampling. Many of those barbs are flagged, but even excluding those it maxes out around 55kt.

[Sciencerocks]

[us89]

Are those gravity waves in the SE outflow?

We might well have a hurricane on our hands if this keeps up.

[St0rmTh0r]

Tell Dorian to hold his horses, I'm already being lectured by Andrew.

Allen has something to say too.

And Gilbert

Mitch says hi!

[us89]

Up to 65 mph for the 11 pm advisory:

...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

[aspen]

Up to 65 mph for the 11 pm advisory:

...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

They shot it up to 55 kt because of that ASCAT pass. The NHC now forecasts a 90 kt Cat 2 peak in 5 days.

[ElectricStorm]

Up to 65 mph for the 11 pm advisory:

...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Not good at all for Bermuda, I didn't think it was supposed to strengthen at all today with all that shear...

[AnnularCane]

Wow, I wasn't expecting that. Isn't she supposed to be weakening?