#134 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:59 pm
TheStormExpert wrote:chris_fit wrote:The 12Z GFS Ops is pretty much the eastern most outlier... I don't think we're quite done here with this one.
https://i.imgur.com/vfwDmhs.png
Still though a lot of those ensembles keep it East of the U.S. and even The Bahamas. This still could be an Eastern Caribbean or Bermuda threat but the threat to the U.S. mainland is quickly diminishing, especially if the 12z Euro doesn’t throw us a curveball.
Good post. Today at 12Z overall the pre-Euro consensus looks encouraging as far as the CONUS not even getting close to being hit. Even the 12Z GEFS has most members missing, similar to 6Z and much less threatening than the 18Z and 0Z runs. However, it still threatens Luis and company pretty hard. Also, out of 21 members, it still has 2 FL hits (10% of members) with one of those also hitting GA (5%), 1 NC hit (5%), and 2 NE US hits (10%). I count about 4 (20%) of the 21 members as solid hits in addition to a few scrapes or near misses. So, despite the good trends, this implies there’s still enough of a chance for the CONUS to be hit to keep a very watchful eye there, especially because there have been many wild swings back and forth.
Now let’s see what the King and his men say.
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