ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Most model runs I’ve seen affect SE LA in some way or another but
I would take what the models are spitting this season with
a grain of salt. IMO

Seems like the early model runs favor MS/AL border to very western FL pandhandle. I would like to think of it as a sigh of relief for us in SELA being that this is not that far out but I worry the tracks could definitely swing once it forms and models have an even better grasp. They must not be seeing a very robust ridge.

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

Not that I want this to strengthen, but I do hope it’s a TD at 5:00, only because it’s much easier to track and get intensity forecasts

[ClarCari]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

[storm4u]

I have a feeling models missed this and will ramp up pretty quick..you guys near the gulf need to watch closely..

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

Highly unlikely 95L would become a major. Not near the amount of time Laura had. And Laura was already much better developed. I do think this can “potentially” make a run as a minimal hurricane, IF it gets going sooner than expected

[tiger_deF]

Coming together real quickly on radar, circulation appears to be off the NE tip of Andros

[sma10]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

Do you have the center around 25.5 78.5, where there seems to be some good turning on radar?

[ElectricStorm]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

Highly unlikely 95L would become a major. Not near the amount of time Laura had. And Laura was already much better developed. I do think this can “potentially” make a run as a minimal hurricane, IF it gets going sooner than expected

Then there's storms like Harvey who was a remnant low entering the gulf and blew up into a cat 4. Not saying it's likely that 96 becomes a major but it certainly isn't impossible

[Aric Dunn]

New ship report just popped up .. right outside the deepest radar returns.

[ClarCari]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

Highly unlikely 95L would become a major. Not near the amount of time Laura had. And Laura was already much better developed. I do think this can “potentially” make a run as a minimal hurricane, IF it gets going sooner than expected

Sorry but in this case you need proof that it is “highly unlikely” that 96L (I think you meant 96L) could become a major. Every conducive element needed for major status is present in front of it’s path. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but I’d hardly call it “unlikely”.

[EquusStorm]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1304493859834073088

[Jr0d]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

I don't think they will update. Winds are not strong enough. I can't even find wind reports of 20 kts anywhere.

[jlauderdal]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

where is the LLC for the TD designation?

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

Highly unlikely 96L would become a major. Not near the amount of time Laura had. And Laura was already much better developed. I do think this can “potentially” make a run as a minimal hurricane, IF it gets going sooner than expected

Edit: I changed post to say 96L. Mistakingly said 95L

[Evil Jeremy]

Sorry but in this case you need proof that it is “highly unlikely” that 96L (I think you meant 96L) could become a major. Every conducive element needed for major status is present in front of it’s path. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but I’d hardly call it “unlikely”.

I think it's worth noting that statistically, it's unlikely for any given invest to become a Major Hurricane. I'm not saying I agree with that assessment for 96L, just that it is statistically unlikely to get there.

EDIT: Generally speaking, when discussing the tropics, it's best to avoid talking about what's likely or unlikely, and focus on what's possible or not possible.

[DestinHurricane]

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

Highly unlikely 95L would become a major. Not near the amount of time Laura had. And Laura was already much better developed. I do think this can “potentially” make a run as a minimal hurricane, IF it gets going sooner than expected

Sorry but in this case you need proof that it is “highly unlikely” that 96L (I think you meant 96L) could become a major. Every conducive element needed for major status is present in front of it’s path. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but I’d hardly call it “unlikely”.

It's the time it will have over water. But if it stalls like some models show then it could.

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think 96L is a TC yet, but it's getting there. Looks like a W-E elongated low-level circulation extending westward from that mesovortex north of Andros. It's possible the mesovortex acts to tighten up the low-level wind field and becomes associated with the dominant circulation. Only time will tell. Nonetheless, the improvement in organization today is very impressive.

[CrazyC83]

Then there's storms like Harvey who was a remnant low entering the gulf and blew up into a cat 4. Not saying it's likely that 96 becomes a major but it certainly isn't impossible

Bret 1999, Alicia 1983 and Anita 1977 also developed in the Gulf and became major hurricanes.

[Jr0d]

New ship report just popped up .. right outside the deepest radar returns.

https://i.ibb.co/1JSPjkQ/Untitled.png

Where did you find that?

These obs might be enough to justify advisories at 5pm.

[ConvergenceZone]

And that makes me worry even more bc the longer 95L takes the farther west it may go into the Caribbean. By all means if 96L gets enough time in the Gulf we could very well have two U.S. majors in a one week span

Highly unlikely 95L would become a major. Not near the amount of time Laura had. And Laura was already much better developed. I do think this can “potentially” make a run as a minimal hurricane, IF it gets going sooner than expected

Sorry but in this case you need proof that it is “highly unlikely” that 96L (I think you meant 96L) could become a major. Every conducive element needed for major status is present in front of it’s path. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but I’d hardly call it “unlikely”.

Yea, I meant to say 96L. I edited my post. Still highly unlikely though, definitely not “likely”. May make a run for a hurricane though, if it can get it’s act together before hitting Florida