ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Moving at 8 mph, it will take TD19 10 hours to reach the SE FL coast. Still time to get to TS before landfall. In the past, we have seen some formative storms continue to strengthen over land. Interesting 24 hours ahead.

[NevadaFan18]

Really not liking the fact that TD19 has 3.5-4 days over the Gulf with a pretty good environment to strengthen. Could see this getting into hurricane status before landfall, if not stronger..

[eastcoastFL]

TD 19, but mark my words this will be a storm tonight while it makes landfall in SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/l7OiFBp.gif

Yeah agreed. I mentioned earlier it would likley be a TS by 11 or 2.

I follow your words more closely than any model this year. You’ve beat the models every time.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This is giving me Katrina vibes

[aspen]

TD 19, but mark my words this will be a storm tonight while it makes landfall in SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/l7OiFBp.gif

Dmax will probably be enough to push TD19 to tropical storm intensity. Once it becomes Sally, it’ll crush Stan’s record for the earliest 18th named storm by nearly three full weeks.

[scotto]

So.... What are the shear forecasts for the Northern Gulf in the next 3-4 days?

[Dean4Storms]

If memory serves, Katrina just loved the Everglades and kept deepening.

[CrazyC83]

The track is literally the worst case for storm surge in Southeast Louisiana too - parallel, not perpendicular like Katrina was. Reminiscent of the 1947 storm and Betsy. Any track north will likely get blocked by the ridging over the Southeast too.

[caneseddy]

And this storm follows the pattern this season of TC's forming close to the US and of the models once again failing in picking up the genesis. Hopefully this does not pull a Katrina even though the setup is almost identical.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Airboy]

I guess this will be a thread with a lot of pages

[jlauderdal]

Lol nice rainy Saturday across SFL..

Of course the weekend I take off!

chase it, you can get landfall tomorrow morning then drive across the glades for its exit

[Aric Dunn]

Just keep in mind.. the stronger this gets the more northerly it will likely turn. deep steering in a couple days should be north..

[CrazyC83]

Just keep in mind.. the stronger this gets the more northerly it will likely turn. deep steering in a couple days should be north..

Stronger sooner yes. But if it holds steady for 48 hours, it would be stuck moving west in the Gulf with a deep layer of ventilation to its north.

[SFLcane]

Really can we get anymore lucky in SFL... Amazing

[Aric Dunn]

Just keep in mind.. the stronger this gets the more northerly it will likely turn. deep steering in a couple days should be north..

Stronger sooner yes. But if it holds steady for 48 hours, it would be stuck moving west in the Gulf with a deep layer of ventilation to its north.

yeppers.. if it stays weaker . then after 48 hours it would miss the chance.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like a Tropical Storm Watch is up from Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet but I haven’t received any notifications on my phone nor has the NWS: Miami posted it on their page or local forecasts.

[ElectricStorm]

And this storm follows the pattern this season of TC's forming close to the US and of the models once again failing in picking up the genesis. Hopefully this does not pull a Katrina even though the setup is almost identical.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The difference is the theme this year has been storms RIing up until landfall rather than weaken like Katrina. If that happens with here with the forecasted track, Sally may be a name remembered for many years unfortunately

[us89]

If there's any good news, it's that this will have less time to strengthen over water than Katrina did. Katrina had about five days between its upgrade to a TS and its landfall on Louisiana. Future Sally won't have more than four.

[gatorcane]

Really can we get anymore lucky in SFL... Amazing

Yes just needed another 24 hours over water and wow could have been much more of an issue here. The luck does continue. But this would be the first landfalling TC from the east since 2005 right?

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn’t rule out one bit yet another hurricane hit in the U.S. for the northern Gulf Coast next week. Current landfall intensity is just under Cat.1 threshold.

Add this to the list of storms the global models failed miserably at forecasting.