ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Persistent Paulette strengthened to 55 kt in the face of 35-40 kt shear. The 2020 season at its finest here, folks. She’s probably itching to intensify once shear finally drops down after 24-48 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

This has a good shot at a major now, unfortunately Bermuda is smack in the middle of the path

[CrazyC83]

I think if Recon went on, they might find Hurricane Paulette given the low resolution. I expect the intensities the last 24 hours to be bumped up in the BT - I doubt it just strengthened suddenly. It has probably been 55-60 kt all day.

I agree that a major hurricane seems quite reasonable now.

[cfisher]

I think if Recon went on, they might find Hurricane Paulette given the low resolution. I expect the intensities the last 24 hours to be bumped up in the BT - I doubt it just strengthened suddenly. It has probably been 55-60 kt all day.

I agree that a major hurricane seems quite reasonable now.

Yup you can see an eye trying to clear out on IR.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think if Recon went on, they might find Hurricane Paulette given the low resolution. I expect the intensities the last 24 hours to be bumped up in the BT - I doubt it just strengthened suddenly. It has probably been 55-60 kt all day.

I agree that a major hurricane seems quite reasonable now.

Yup you can see an eye trying to clear out on IR.

Not quite, the center is still partially exposed to the southwest. Very tilted still right now, but won’t be for too much longer

[cfisher]

Paulette's really bombing out in 30kts of shear huh..

[Do_For_Love]

Wow, I guess Paulette has a lot of "green grass" in front of her once she clears the shear, so to speak. Did not expect this storm to make a run at a major. I'd be taking the situation pretty seriously if I lived in bermuda.

[Kazmit]

I wish I was back home in Bermuda right now to experience this storm along with the huge surf it will be bringing.

[aspen]

Convection has covered the CoC again. With shear forecast to start dropping today, Paulette could potentially get up to 60 kt by the end of the day.

I don’t see much in the way of Paulette bombing out to a 105-115 kt Cat 3/4 in 60-96 hours.

[plasticup]

I wish I was back home in Bermuda right now to experience this storm along with the huge surf it will be bringing.

You were here for Humberto, right? This could be a repeat.

[Kazmit]

I wish I was back home in Bermuda right now to experience this storm along with the huge surf it will be bringing.

You were here for Humberto, right? This could be a repeat.

I was. Although if this passes to the east of Bermuda the impacts will be less severe even if it gets as strong as Humberto.

[plasticup]

I wish I was back home in Bermuda right now to experience this storm along with the huge surf it will be bringing.

You were here for Humberto, right? This could be a repeat.

I was. Although if this passes to the east of Bermuda the impacts will be less severe even if it gets as strong as Humberto.

This is the 06z HMON:



12z is only at 48 hours so far but it a little more north and east - definitely could see the eye here.

[EquusStorm]

I like how tropical cyclones this year have decided they can just ignore mile high Caribbean mountains and gale force shear. Makes total sense.

[ElectricStorm]

Pressure down to 989
17L PAULETTE 200911 1800 24.2N 53.2W ATL 55 989

[plasticup]

Here comes the deepening. The speed of this means everything

[ElectricStorm]

Here comes the deepening. The speed of this means everything

Yeah. You're in Bermuda right? Stay safe out there

[cheezyWXguy]

What was that line that shot out to the west from the convection? Didn’t look like it was at the surface. Mid level outflow boundary? Is that a thing?

[CrazyC83]

Now a 95 kt forecast peak. Still probably conservative IMO...the atmosphere looks good for solid intensification Sunday into Monday.

[Hurricane_Luis]

What was that line that shot out to the west from the convection? Didn’t look like it was at the surface. Mid level outflow boundary? Is that a thing?

I believe they are collapsing thunderstorms. I remember seeing the same in Karen in the Gulf a few years back.

[aspen]

Now a 95 kt forecast peak. Still probably conservative IMO...the atmosphere looks good for solid intensification Sunday into Monday.

The stage seems set for Paulette to become a major hurricane. I wouldn’t even rule out a low-end Cat 4 if she’s feeling ambitious.