ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

That's true, but once the NHC starts getting around, and inside of that 3 day cone they are pretty dern accurate. Right now 72 hours has center probably less that 50 miles south of AL/MS line.

[Aric Dunn]

Due to some formative wobble/loops. it very well just clip the southern part of florida. and not really be affected by land.

[chaser1]

One thing I remain slightly skeptical about is this TD tightening up much prior to landfall. The little data available suggests this TD has a fairly broad COC. Estimated pressure associated with the TD is 1009 mb, with Miami area land stations already reporting 1010 mb pressures. You're gonna need a tighter gradient to further enhance very near term deepening.

[GCANE]

That tower just off the west shore of Andros is going to town.
Just gave a huge jolt to the tower to its west.
Must be a massive outflow to it.
Very ominous.

[SootyTern]

If there's any good news, it's that this will have less time to strengthen over water than Katrina did. Katrina had about five days between its upgrade to a TS and its landfall on Louisiana. Future Sally won't have more than four.

But remember Katrina reached Cat 5 status over the central Gulf, she weakened coming into Landfall.

Agreed. 4 days is plenty of time for this to develop into trouble for the northern Gulf Coast, especially given today's trends of faster organization

[Do_For_Love]

A little unnerving how quickly 19 willed itself into existence against expectations, lol. What were the 48 hour odds this morning, like 10%?

One day past climatological peak. Not surprising.

I mean it was surprising to me, and judging by the uptick in volume of posts in this thread, I don't think I'm the only one...

[toad strangler]

A little unnerving how quickly 19 willed itself into existence against expectations, lol. What were the 48 hour odds this morning, like 10%?

One day past climatological peak. Not surprising.

I mean it was surprising to me, and judging by the uptick in volume of posts in this thread, I don't think I'm the only one...

No, it's just the herd moving to the next best watering hole.

[GCANE]

A small amount of mesoscale-level helicity now being detected.
Watching if this picks up.

[Fancy1001]

I'm getting mini Katrina vibes.

[Nimbus]

For east coast Florida watchers interested in "landfall" this buoy should be useful, you can watch for wind shifts and pressure drops on the hour.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fwyf1

[stormlover2013]

I'm getting mini Katrina vibes.

Won’t be Katrina

[ClarCari]

Correct it won’t be Katrina..
It’ll possibly be it’s own Monster in the Making..

[TimSmith]

Lol nice rainy Saturday across SFL..

Of course the weekend I take off!

chase it, you can get landfall tomorrow morning then drive across the glades for its exit

That'd be an interesting day & drive across alligator alley... not sure if I'd feel safe taking Tamami! I remember years back I was driving across that and there was a big brush fire out past the Indian reservation - I quickly realized how narrow that road really is as could feel the heat of the fire which was burning right upto shoulder.

Anyways, defintley would be very interesting day as never know the storm might actually get named while crossing Everglades, not sure if that's ever happened or can?

[Dean4Storms]

I imagine at some point tomorrow late afternoon Hurricane Watches go up for the Northern Gulf Coast.

[hurricanehunter69]

I hate to make a reference to the infamous K storm, but I just can't help myself. Especially when looking back at the very (FIRST) advisory written by the NHC. That advisory forecasted a peak intensity of 65kt.....I'll say it again only 65kt. We all know that advisory's are written conservatively and are subject to change every 6 hours. I make reference to the infamous K storm because of the ideal environment Katrina had to take advantage of. This storm has a (near) ideal environment to take advantage of too. Remember, luck favors the prepared.

[Shoshana]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

Texas just had a big cold front come thru, doesn’t that usually mean chances go way down?

[Shoshana]

Duplicate

[GCANE]

Deep trof to the east.
ULL to the south.
Two outflow channels - ideal, close-in ventilation.
Moving thru the Gulf Stream / Loop Current.
I don't think I need to say more.

[TimSmith]

Due to some formative wobble/loops. it very well just clip the southern part of florida. and not really be affected by land.

Yeah that area down south of Miami, more near homestead & Cutler Bay is just a real narrow strip of "land" and then lots of water in Florida bay + actually is fuel in water in the Everglades so this storm might just be cracking up quicker than expected? Would have effect further down road...

[Shoshana]

Sorry duplicated 2x