ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on TD-19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qotuUWdqr1Y

[TallahasseeMan]

Is this a training mission or are they trying to get a pass in before landfall?


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[SFLcane]

There is essentially no rain with this thing to its north. Not looking as impressive right now

[GCANE]

Satellite radar about 1/2 hour ago.
Top-of-the-scale intensity.

[cp79]

Living in Tampa Bay. What do you guys think the effects will be here? Some rain? Lots of rain? This isn’t gonna be an Elena is it?

[CrazyC83]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

Crazy do you think a stronger sally will go more north? Into panhandle perhaps?

Stronger in the *short term* yes, but it still needs to move fast enough to avoid missing the connection.

[DestinHurricane]

Living in Tampa Bay. What do you guys think the effects will be here? Some rain? Lots of rain? This isn’t gonna be an Elena is it?

Probably some rain, gusty wind, and perhaps some minor surge.

[CrazyC83]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200911/c28ea3a53e82ebee8962c4aeb32f69b6.jpg
Is this a training mission or are they trying to get a pass in before landfall?


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I think it is a transit mission to move planes to St. Croix for Paulette (and Teddy?).

[eastcoastFL]

[DestinHurricane]

There is essentially no rain with this thing to its north. Not looking as impressive right now

Not sure what you are seeing. Looks like an intensifying TC to me.

[jaxfladude]

NHC Forecast advisory #1

Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression.

That is something you never want to read on a tropical threat, especially during "peak of season" period late aug to mid oct...even more where TD19 is and whatnot...

[Blinhart]

Track into the Northern Gulf Coast is going to be determined by how much the SE Ridge erodes from the Trough in the Plains and how intense TD19 becomes. More Ridge erosion along with deepening rapidly and lookout FL Panhandle and of course more westward if that Ridge remains stout and the Trough doesn't erode it as much, then lookout LA/MS/AL

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

Texas just had a big cold front come thru, doesn’t that usually mean chances go way down?

That front didn't even make down to Houston, so shouldn't have that much effect on this system that will be on the Northern Gulf Coast in 4 to 5 days.

[eastcoastFL]

Hwrf is running 19 right now. Let’s see what it has for us.

[robbielyn]

[quote="GCANE"]A small amount of mesoscale-level helicity now being detected.
Watching if this picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/3vb5y8d.gif[/
What does watching this determine GCane?

[toad strangler]

There is essentially no rain with this thing to its north. Not looking as impressive right now

It hasn't arrived in S FL yet.

[MississippiWx]

Just curious if those of you saying it won’t do this or that thought it would be TD19 today? I’m guessing not.

It’s peak hurricane season. The conditions don’t get much better for intensifying.

[robbielyn]

Just curious if those of you saying it won’t do this or that thought it would be TD19 today? I’m guessing not.

It’s peak hurricane season. The conditions don’t get much better for intensifying.

True dat lol

[Kazmit]

I did not think much of this system until I checked to find it became a TD out of nowhere, and that it's expected to become a borderline hurricane.

[GCANE]

A small amount of mesoscale-level helicity now being detected.
Watching if this picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/3vb5y8d.gif[/
What does watching this determine GCane?

When helicity increases it shows that the convection is pushing down vorticity to the surface hence strengthening the TC.
Also, if helicity gets close to the shore, the slow down in surface winds in combination with high helicity will spawn tornadoes.

[GCANE]

High CAPE air now being entrained from the north.
Spinning up quickly.