ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Putting on a show convection wise tonight.

[Blow_Hard]

In New Orleans, watching close. Still have most of what we bought for Laura that went west but gonna probably see about filling the kit back up tomorrow. A heavy rain event stalling here would not be ideal for me. Gonna wait until Sunday to see if I need to move things up on the lower level.

Probably a very good idea...

[jasons2k]

This is a tough one, y'all. The LLC on base velocity looks decent, but in the last few frames it may not be as tightly defined as it was before. And at the same time you can see the MLC to its SE churning down there. The radar frames, combined with infrared, makes me think this still has a long way to go before it organizes. There was just another blowup of convection on the SW side as well. It may still be a mess but once a "center" does stack and gets established, it could strengthen very quickly going forward. I do think small changes now in the formative stages will have great implications on the eventual track, since this thing may stall and/or run parallel to the coast.

[cfisher]

Even if we don’t see a reformation, I think the track will be dragged south

[DestinHurricane]

Even if we don’t see a reformation, I think the track will be dragged south

It's possible that it will be more north and east in the long term even if it is dragged south in short term. If it is stronger it will be steered poleward likely into panhandle.

[cfisher]

Even if we don’t see a reformation, I think the track will be dragged south

It's possible that it will be more north and east in the long term even if it is dragged south in short term. If it is stronger it will be steered poleward likely into panhandle.

If it’s dragged further south, it won’t feel as much steering effects from trough to the north

[Jag95]

with weak steering this could well be a rain bomb event...like Danny 1997... minimal cane/massive rain induced flooding. heavy rain is also likely to focus on the western side of the florida peninsula with good convergence as the system moves into the gulf.

I remember Danny; some places got a radar indicated 40+ inches of rain. Rain I can take.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is still clear as day.. convection trying to build up the east side of it.. still a little shear.

[Ivanhater]

Even if we don’t see a reformation, I think the track will be dragged south

It's possible that it will be more north and east in the long term even if it is dragged south in short term. If it is stronger it will be steered poleward likely into panhandle.

This is shown in the models. The gfs and its ensembles don't develop this. All the stronger models are north and east. Keep in mind the gfs is pulling the TVCN model (which the NHC likes to follow closely) further south.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if we don’t see a reformation, I think the track will be dragged south

It's possible that it will be more north and east in the long term even if it is dragged south in short term. If it is stronger it will be steered poleward likely into panhandle.

And that just means less time over water if it goes more North and East, and less time over water is always a good thing...

[DestinHurricane]

Even if we don’t see a reformation, I think the track will be dragged south

It's possible that it will be more north and east in the long term even if it is dragged south in short term. If it is stronger it will be steered poleward likely into panhandle.

And that just means less time over water if it goes more North and East, and less time over water is always a good thing...

Look at HMON, it will have plenty time even if it hits the panhandle. 3 days is plenty of time in the gulf. People said this about laura and we all know what happened.

[CrazyC83]

It's possible that it will be more north and east in the long term even if it is dragged south in short term. If it is stronger it will be steered poleward likely into panhandle.

And that just means less time over water if it goes more North and East, and less time over water is always a good thing...

Look at HMON, it will have plenty time even if it hits the panhandle. 3 days is plenty of time in the gulf. People said this about laura and we all know what happened.

One limiting factor if it moves TOO slow could be upwelling, especially close to the coast.

[lhpfish]

And that just means less time over water if it goes more North and East, and less time over water is always a good thing...

Look at HMON, it will have plenty time even if it hits the panhandle. 3 days is plenty of time in the gulf. People said this about laura and we all know what happened.

One limiting factor if it moves TOO slow could be upwelling, especially close to the coast.

Pretty deep water here

[us89]

Look at HMON, it will have plenty time even if it hits the panhandle. 3 days is plenty of time in the gulf. People said this about laura and we all know what happened.

One limiting factor if it moves TOO slow could be upwelling, especially close to the coast.

Pretty deep water here

Not on the Gulf side. The continental shelf extends quite a bit further off the west side of the Florida peninsula than the east side.

[lhpfish]

Sorry referring to broward

[Dean4Storms]

Lots of lightning erupting with the hot tower now due west of the MLC. I think the Low is going to get pulled into this MLC overnight, then we see more intensification by morning!

[Nuno]

And that just means less time over water if it goes more North and East, and less time over water is always a good thing...

Look at HMON, it will have plenty time even if it hits the panhandle. 3 days is plenty of time in the gulf. People said this about laura and we all know what happened.

One limiting factor if it moves TOO slow could be upwelling, especially close to the coast.

While its a bit slow, its fast enough that unwelling shouldn't be a problem on the Atlantic side of things.

[Steve]

I am just East of P'Cola in Pace...watching this one quite closely.

Same here. On Blackwater Bay near Yellow River.We are extremely surge prone here.
Will be watching closely tomorrow

Airport and N 12th at the moment. We had a couple nice storms come through today with the first low. Nice rain in downtown and Gulf Breeze around 1ish and then rotating storm over pensacola at sundown.

[tailgater]

The MLC does seem to be weakening /warming cloud tops. Not sure if that is a good thing or not.

[cheezyWXguy]

That llc is really trying to tighten up on radar. HWRF may not be far off in its depiction