ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Glad someone else noticed that boundary that shot out. Paulette has been absolutely fascinating to watch.

[CrazyC83]

Now a 95 kt forecast peak. Still probably conservative IMO...the atmosphere looks good for solid intensification Sunday into Monday.

The stage seems set for Paulette to become a major hurricane. I wouldn’t even rule out a low-end Cat 4 if she’s feeling ambitious.

I agree that cat 4 is not out of reach.

[Kazmit]

Paulette looks like it will do what everyone thought Florence would do around the time of its first peak.

[plasticup]

Now a 95 kt forecast peak. Still probably conservative IMO...the atmosphere looks good for solid intensification Sunday into Monday.

The stage seems set for Paulette to become a major hurricane. I wouldn’t even rule out a low-end Cat 4 if she’s feeling ambitious.

I agree that cat 4 is not out of reach.

When do you think we will have a better estimate of intensive at/near landfall?

[ElectricStorm]

17L PAULETTE 200912 0000 25.3N 54.3W ATL 55 989

[aspen]

Satellite imagery over the last several hours shows a change in the shear direction, with convection moving more towards the northern quadrant from the eastern quadrant. Tomorrow will be when shear finally starts to subside to favorable levels, although Paulette is apparently okay with 30-40 kt of it.

[CrazyC83]

The stage seems set for Paulette to become a major hurricane. I wouldn’t even rule out a low-end Cat 4 if she’s feeling ambitious.

I agree that cat 4 is not out of reach.

When do you think we will have a better estimate of intensive at/near landfall?

Probably by Sunday.

[us89]

Up to 60 kt, almost a hurricane:

...PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 54.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Perhaps more interesting is the forecast 96-hour peak of 95 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Discussion also mentions that it could become a major hurricane, although doesn't explicitly forecast it. I'd be placing a couple M's on the map personally.

[ElectricStorm]

Almost a hurricane despite all the shear. She's about to go off once shear subsides

[Hammy]

Mid-level eye starting to show up?

[ElectricStorm]

Trying to figure out how to get pictures on here, did I do this correctly? I used imgur and copied the HTML imbed link, but there's like 4 options. Is this the right one?
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="6oLwhbP"><a href="https://imgur.com/6oLwhbP">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
EDIT: apparently not let me try that again
Mods please delete this post

[ElectricStorm]

[USTropics]

Trying to figure out how to get pictures on here, did I do this correctly?

You'll put it in enclosing [img] brackets, see my code below. Just replace the sample image url with your image url (should end in .jpg, .gif, .png. etc.)

Code: Select all

[img]https://i.imgur.com/sgDJB3U.gif[/img]

[ElectricStorm]

Trying to figure out how to get pictures on here, did I do this correctly?

You'll put it in enclosing [url] brackets, see my code below. Just replace the sample image url with your image url (should end in .jpg, .gif, .png. etc.)

Code: Select all

[img]https://i.imgur.com/sgDJB3U.gif[/img]

Thanks, it appears that copying the BBcode does that already and it worked for me

[USTropics]

One of my favorite type of evolutions to watch, as Paulette's outflow begins to dictate the upper-level environment and pushes the trough away, thinning it out. This causes the low to become cutoff, which will eventually move towards the Caribbean.

Past 24 hours:


Past 36 hours + 60 hours forecast on the 00z GFS:

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like dry air or upwelling has degraded the satellite appearance

[gfsperpendicular]

Anyone know why this large area of 200mb vorticity is entraining into the circulation?

[Kazmit]

IR presentation has deteriorated.

[aspen]

Looks like dry air or upwelling has degraded the satellite appearance

She might’ve finally gulped in some dry air, but new convection is starting to re-fire near the center.