2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Dean4Storms]

https://i.ibb.co/mhLFC6R/two-atl-5d0.png

Yea, take a look at the GFS 00z run for the vorticity crossing Florida into the Gulf this weekend. See 850mb vorticity.....18z Monday is interesting as it heads toward NOrleans.

[tolakram]

The low runner is back, this time on the 0z. Beyond 120 this heads towards Florida, but I'm not going beyond 120H.

[NDG]

Yet another example no to believe models' shear forecast past 5-7 days. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing one heck of a sheared environment for the GOM this weekend to now showing a very good light shear environment.

[gatorcane]

It does look like more of a fall-like pattern is setting in across North America and the Northern Atlantic. Here are the 500MB height runs from the 12Z GFS and 00Z Euro for comparison:

GFS:


Euro:

[Fancy1001]

Where can I find whatever the ICON is smoking for the 00z.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is the GFS setting up the beginning of a monsoon gyre in the western Caribbean at the end of the run

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it me or is the GFS setting up the beginning of a monsoon gyre in the western Caribbean at the end of the run

I think this is definitely something to watch for in future runs. With how deep the troughs are shown to dig, it’s only a matter of time before a piece breaks off and sets up down there.


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[Keldeo1997]

EURO has a TS heading for the LA'S at 240 Hours.

[SFLcane]

Euro long range with another low rider near the Caribbean islands.

[aspen]

Both the GFS and Euro have that second low-rider. It appears to be from a tropical wave that emerges off the coast of Africa in about 2-3 days or so.

[toad strangler]

Euro long range with another low rider near the Caribbean islands.

Let's see if the cue ball is hit true this time.

[St0rmTh0r]

Euro long range with another low rider near the Caribbean islands.

Let's see if the cue ball is hit true this time.

Just absolutely insane activity right now with a la nina now in place the season will get worse than it has been.

[MetroMike]

Euro long range with another low rider near the Caribbean islands.

Let's see if the cue ball is hit true this time.

Just absolutely insane activity right now with a la nina now in place the season will get worse than it has been.

Copious heat energy in the SST's so things most likely will get worse as it has not been that bad so far with only a couple exceptions this season.
Shall be focused on the Western Basin coming as the MDR is showing signs of non threatening systems being produced.

[ElectricStorm]

Euro long range with another low rider near the Caribbean islands.

Let's see if the cue ball is hit true this time.

If this verifies and 97L becomes Vicky, then this would be Wilfred. Storms that have started with "wil-" (Wilma, Willa in EPAC) have become monsters. Hopefully this won't follow

[SFLcane]

12z Euro a tad weaker has a TC moving into the Caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Canadian shows this Caribbean low rider as well




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[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro a tad weaker has a TC moving into the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/HsRgSmtr/4-C795-F80-EF37-4-DD0-B4-B9-E402-DCC0-ECA0.gif

Is that a cold front actually making it all the way through Florida into the straights in late-September!?

[WxEp]

12z EPS increasing support for this low rider. Still very far out in time.

[SFLcane]

The 12z Canadian shows this Caribbean low rider as well

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/943fe3613bb918b1fd5949819206badb.jpg


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With all these troughs that “ can ” get interesting.

[toad strangler]

The 12z Canadian shows this Caribbean low rider as well

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/943fe3613bb918b1fd5949819206badb.jpg


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With all these troughs that “ can ” get interesting.

It's been in the back of my mind for sure. But that's just general "time of year" vibes that I'm starting to get. Not any specific threat. That kind of track are the ones to look for and so we track.