ATL: SALLY - Models

[DestinHurricane]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_19_ens.gif

If you look at the grey ensembles you will see most of them stay South and West of the main ones

Again, it is because they are very weak. This another situation where intensity will affect track.

[Ivanhater]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_19_ens.gif

If you look at the grey ensembles you will see most of them stay South and West of the main ones

Those ensembles are from 18z and most kept it very weak. With the 00Z suite and gfs shifting east, the TCVN and thus the NHC will likely shift a bit east being 3 days in.

Regardless, let's get back on topic.

[NDG]

I think a stronger storm would prevent the ridge from building in over the panhandle.

Notice that the GFS now shows the MLC circulation further west as well, meaning that it forecasts it to be stronger and more stacked than previous run.
I am sure the HWRF will shift westward towards SE LA/MS and not as close to the FL Panhandle as previous runs over the next few runs based on the GFS showing stronger ridging to the north.

Not sure what you mean there. GFS shifted east. Stronger will mean more east.

Please look at the whole model run. Through the 84th hour is on the same spot if not more west than previous runs, still making landfall over lower SE LA before stalling or slowing down then making a cyclonic loop towards the LA/MS border.

[Blinhart]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_19_ens.gif

If you look at the grey ensembles you will see most of them stay South and West of the main ones

Those ensembles are from 18z and most kept it very weak. With the 00Z suite and gfs shifting east, the TCVN and thus the NHC will likely shift a bit east being 3 days in.

Regardless, let's get back on topic.

I am staying on topic.

All models have this heading West after going North, I just don't think it will go as far North before the West turn happens.

[Steve]

I haven't been following specifics much yet, but is that pressure with the HWRF close at 1001 Regardless, it looks like an initial landfall in a few hours near Miami Beach.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91200&fh=9

[DestinHurricane]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_19_ens.gif

If you look at the grey ensembles you will see most of them stay South and West of the main ones

Those ensembles are from 18z and most kept it very weak. With the 00Z suite and gfs shifting east, the TCVN and thus the NHC will likely shift a bit east being 3 days in.

Regardless, let's get back on topic.

I am staying on topic.

All models have this heading West after going North, I just don't think it will go as far North before the West turn happens.

That's a possibility if the storm stays weak. Here's a great explanation of the situation from Levi Cowan, he explains this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx_RZIPC3M0

[jhpigott]

I haven't been following specifics much yet, but is that pressure with the HWRF close at 1001 Regardless, it looks like an initial landfall in a few hours near Miami Beach.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91200&fh=9

HWRF looks to wash out that meso vortex heading towards Miami and redevelop back over Andros close to where the MLC is now

[SoupBone]

HWRF at 72 nears the Florida/Alabama line then puts on the brakes and starts chugging west.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Hmon

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[DestinHurricane]

HMON and HWRF have both shifted west.

[NDG]

0z HWRF so far shifted southward so most likely will shift its landfall westward closer to the LA/MS stateline, as I had mentioned earlier it was going to do with the 0z GFS showing slightly more riding to the north when it nears the FL Panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF at 72 nears the Florida/Alabama line then puts on the brakes and starts chugging west.

Hwrf really slows it down near the coast which would be very bad

[SoupBone]

HWRF at 72 nears the Florida/Alabama line then puts on the brakes and starts chugging west.

Hwrf really slows it down near the coast which would be very bad

It's like its in a pinball machine bouncing off the coast.

[Ivanhater]

With the runs so far I expect the TVCN to shift slightly east

[NDG]

HWRF at 72 nears the Florida/Alabama line then puts on the brakes and starts chugging west.

I think you meant to say AL/MS state line.

[NDG]

With the runs so far I expect the TVCN to shift slightly east

Not with the HWRF shifting slightly south & westward and the GFS still making landfall over lower SE LA.

[DestinHurricane]

With the runs so far I expect the TVCN to shift slightly east

I would think it stays the same. GFS has come slightly east but HMON/HWRF have come west. We aren't completely out of the woods in the panhandle but getting close if trends continue.

[Steve]

Close to South of Ocean Springs at 84

HWRF
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=84

[Ivanhater]

With the runs so far I expect the TVCN to shift slightly east

Not with the HWRF shifting slightly south & westward and the GFS still making landfall over lower SE LA.

Again, the gfs skewed the TVCN consensus to the south. Every model is now Mississisppi to NW Florida

I think we are kind of splitting hairs at this point anyway.

[bella_may]

One thing to take away is the HWRF keeps this pretty strong while it rides the coastline unlike the last run. Hopefully this isn’t a trend