ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[us89]

Biscayne Bay and adjacent coastal waters out 20 nm are currently under a special marine warning for waterspouts and 49 kt wind gusts.

With gusts that high I don't see how there isn't a sustained 34 kt wind somewhere in the storm. I'm betting we see an upgrade to Sally for the 2 AM intermediate advisory.

[FireRat]

I agree, this looks like it could already be Sally. that vortex headed into Miami almost looks like a dang tornado on radar!
If it has such high wind gusts, 49 kt, the thing must be in the 40 mph sustained range.

The only thing would be if they don't count this vortex about to make landfall right now as the TS itself. Elsewhere, TD 19 is about borderline TS too. This kind of reminds me of how Bertha developed right as it came ashore SC earlier this year.

[Aric Dunn]

Biscayne Bay and adjacent coastal waters out 20 nm are currently under a special marine warning for waterspouts and 49 kt wind gusts.

With gusts that high I don't see how there isn't a sustained 34 kt wind somewhere in the storm. I'm betting we see an upgrade to Sally for the 2 AM intermediate advisory.

swath of 50mph winds in biscayne bay only 700 feet up.. almost certainly sustained at TS force.

They will probably back up in post season.

[got ants?]

I don't post often, as I'm below an amateur weather watcher, but I have this theory, that once again, this, whatever is, and its path. I call it the concrete wall storm blocker. It goes like this, all the concrete construction, highrise buildings, etc, block storms fron jitting the area where this wall exists.

I know it sounds carzy, and I might be a kook, but Andrew was supposed to hit Ft Laud/Hollywood. For some reason, he changed course, made a 90% turn, and beelined under the wall.

I'm a native of 61 yeas, living in Miramar as a youth, and east Hollywood as an adult. It used to be like clock work, 2:00pm and the afternoon showers came. Now, while they still come, its 20
miles west now in west Miramar, Pembroke Pines, Weston. All the construction over the last 50 years has sltered the weather pattern.

Does this make sense?

[ClarCari]

They’d be reckless not to upgrade at the intermediate. There’s plenty of data supporting a TS right now that it’s safe and supported to do so. Unless they see something that we don’t right now.

[AtlanticWind]

I don't post often, as I'm below an amateur weather watcher, but I have this theory, that once again, this, whatever is, and its path. I call it the concrete wall storm blocker. It goes like this, all the concrete construction, highrise buildings, etc, block storms fron jitting the area where this wall exists.

I know it sounds carzy, and I might be a kook, but Andrew was supposed to hit Ft Laud/Hollywood. For some reason, he changed course, made a 90% turn, and beelined under the wall.

I'm a native of 61 yeas, living in Miramar as a youth, and east Hollywood as an adult. It used to be like clock work, 2:00pm and the afternoon showers came. Now, while they still come, its 20
miles west now in west Miramar, Pembroke Pines, Weston. All the construction over the last 50 years has sltered the weather pattern.

Does this make sense?

No

[TallahasseeMan]

Looks like the system is coalescing a little south of Biscayne bay





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[us89]

The weather weenie in me is annoyed...

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 80.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

The weather weenie in me is annoyed...

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 80.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Something tells me we might get a surface observation of tropical storm winds.

[ClarCari]

The weather weenie in me is annoyed...

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 80.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Something tells me we might get a surface observation of tropical storm winds.

Probably! I agree

Has it ever happened where the NHC had to “correct” an advisory very quickly?

[Aric Dunn]

ok well swath of 40 to 50mph at 500 feet..

very close to the radar..

the lack of surface obs in such a high population is kind of annoying lol

[CrazyC83]

ok well swath of 40 to 50mph at 500 feet..

very close to the radar..

the lack of surface obs in such a high population is kind of annoying lol

That would translate to about 36-39 kt winds at the surface using the 90% reduction on low-level Recon missions.

[FireRat]

The weather weenie in me is annoyed...

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 80.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Something tells me we might get a surface observation of tropical storm winds.

Probably! I agree

Has it ever happened where the NHC had to “correct” an advisory very quickly?

aha! so they did consider that wacky vortex entering Miami as the center of TD 19, well then this will be interesting! There will be some funky winds measured in the area of the landfall I would assume, maybe 40 mph sustained? we'll see!

[Aric Dunn]

This WSW dive is interesting to say the least.

also each frame of radar showing this swath of TS winds getting bigger as it gets closer to radar.

this should be upgraded.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Maybe I'm looking at my monitor sideways, but does the LLC appear to be moving SW to anyone on radar?

[us89]

The surface obs that do exist down there don't seem to support anything near TS intensity right now... what they do show is that the LLC is located somewhere in the Pinecrest area. The highest ob I'm seeing now is a 31 mph reading from Virginia Key.

[CrazyC83]

I'm seeing pressures down to about 1004 mb on surface observations.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&s ... opacity=70

[FireRat]

Yeah, it sure is taking a WSW dive on approach, man this reminds me of how Katrina moved over Dade, but of course as a weaker version (Kat did so as a Cat 1). Will it keep shoving SW wayy out into the GOM like that one did? that's the big question in the day ahead!

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, it sure is taking a WSW dive on approach, man this reminds me of how Katrina moved over Dade, but of course as a weaker version (Kat did so as a Cat 1). Will it keep shoving SW wayy out into the GOM like that one did? that's the big question in the day ahead!

That would give it a lot more time over water, as it would be farther from the coast when it stalls out and almost no chance of making the connection.

[FireRat]

The surface obs that do exist down there don't seem to support anything near TS intensity right now... what they do show is that the LLC is located somewhere in the Pinecrest area. The highest ob I'm seeing now is a 31 mph reading from Virginia Key.

hopefully we get more obs from that precise area, this is so borderline!