ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Glad it's not just me then.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1304660082861506561




I do not mean to sound like I'm unnecessarily causing hype, but out of all the Katrina comparisons today, this sudden SW jog over SFL is the only thing that raises the Katrina red flag for me.

[Aric Dunn]

48mph at 350 feet..

safe to say it a TS.

too bad we have no real surface obs.. which is really dumb.

[tiger_deF]

Appears to be materializing an eastern flank to the llc/mlc out of thin air

[TallahasseeMan]

Looks like it’s getting pulled south deeper into Biscayne bay.


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[us89]

Maybe this is just a matter of surface winds catching up to the upper-level winds and pressure falls...

I would be shocked if this makes it all the way through the Miami metro area without being upgraded.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1304663508831866881

[FireRat]

48mph at 350 feet..

safe to say it a TS.

too bad we have no real surface obs.. which is really dumb.

of course, Rats!

[Aric Dunn]

This should be enough proof that the winds in that north quad are TS..

this ob is outside the heaviest radar returns.

[FireRat]

imagine if 19 gets upgraded at 5 AM once over land, could that even be possible?

This evolved so fast it was hard to catch up, makes one wonder if the NHC could use the radar velocities and that 350 ft observation alone for an upgrade.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There are many instances of storms being upgraded in S FL after landfalling.

[us89]

imagine if 19 gets upgraded at 5 AM once over land, could that even be possible?

Julia did that in 2016, also over the Florida coast...just a few hundred miles further north.

[AxaltaRacing24]

in my opinion, this is currently sally.

[CrazyC83]

in my opinion, this is currently sally.

Agreed - that would be the NHC's call though and would come from a Tropical Cyclone Update.

[ClarCari]

imagine if 19 gets upgraded at 5 AM once over land, could that even be possible?

This evolved so fast it was hard to catch up, makes one wonder if the NHC could use the radar velocities and that 350 ft observation alone for an upgrade.

Julia 2016 was upgraded over Florida! And Fay 2008 strengthened over Florida and the NHC reflected that.

[Aric Dunn]

in my opinion, this is currently sally.

Agreed - that would be the NHC's call though and would come from a Tropical Cyclone Update.

TS winds expanding out from the core into that curved band now.

definitely a TS..

50mph on radar at 300 feet

[us89]

 https://twitter.com/cc_stormwatch/status/1304665068366430208

[NDG]

This should be enough proof that the winds in that north quad are TS..

this ob is outside the heaviest radar returns.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=fwyf1&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

Pressure much lower than estimated, 40 mph wind gusts and a pressure of 1005 mb, its pressure is probably around 1003-1004mb.

[tiger_deF]

Any chance we get an intermediate upgrade?

[FireRat]

So it can happen, an upgrade over land! 5 AM might be interesting unless the NHC makes a quick update. The data does support a TS landfall is happening now. Of course it looks like Biscayne National Park is gonna get the first hit, and very little surface obs there if any, but soon enough the Southern tip of FL will get the TS winds. This is Sally being birthed right now

[CrazyC83]

Any chance we get an intermediate upgrade?

It's very possible - that would come from a Tropical Cyclone Update.