ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

Certainly looks like the center is getting stretched out NNW to SSE. Possible relocation or reformation to the SSE. My opinion only.

[ConvergenceZone]

the last update says that it's not expected to become a tropical storm until tonight(Saturday Night) OR Sunday. that's surprising that they think it will take that long?

[NDG]

Homestead reported a pressure of 1003mb when the LLC passed over it, winds gusted over 40 mph.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

[La Breeze]

Certainly looks like the center is getting stretched out NNW to SSE. Possible relocation or reformation to the SSE. My opinion only.

If this were the case as of now, what would that do to the predicted path in the GOM? More of a shift to the east? west? Just wondering.

[SootyTern]

Strong thunder and rain in Homestead now. No worse than strong summer thunderstorms, really.

Just enough to wake me up! Maybe gusts in the high 20's (mph) range briefly and very hard rain for a short while. Not seeing current wind speed update at Homestead ARB; the obs is an hour old on the NWS site

[tailgater]

Certainly looks like the center is getting stretched out NNW to SSE. Possible relocation or reformation to the SSE. My opinion only.

If this were the case as of now, what would that do to the predicted path in the GOM? More of a shift to the east? west? Just wondering.

Sorry I’m not qualified to answer that but my guess in the long term it wouldn’t change a lot, probably a bit stronger short term so it might feel the through more but being farther south it would likely even out. Just my opinion again.

[La Breeze]

Certainly looks like the center is getting stretched out NNW to SSE. Possible relocation or reformation to the SSE. My opinion only.

If this were the case as of now, what would that do to the predicted path in the GOM? More of a shift to the east? west? Just wondering.

Sorry I’m not qualified to answer that but my guess in the long term it wouldn’t change a lot, probably a bit stronger short term so it might feel the through more but being farther south it would likely even out. Just my opinion again.

Makes sense to me - thanks.

[tailgater]

Another Meso vort forming East of Miami let’s see what and where this one does and goes but I still think the center is a bit East of Florida City

[Sean in New Orleans]

Tropical moisture levels are definitely expanding at the lower levels. Appears the groundwork is being set up for a larger system.

[GCANE]

I think the center is in the Glades.
Looks south of forecast track.

[xironman]

I think the low level center is being pulled around the mid-level gyre, hence the move to the left.

[GCANE]

Very solid anticyclone in the GoM

[Dean4Storms]

Still somewhat disorganized, good.

[GCANE]

The PV Streamer is still beating down on this.
But not nearly as well organized as yesterday afternoon.
The afternoon popups over FL helped to take a good chunk out of it.

[tailgater]

A small upper level low just west of the center. I think it’s diving southwest but I just spotted it.



Oops I guess we are talking about the same area? GCane

[GCANE]

Two main infeeds.
1) from the North and Mid GoM.
2) from the west Carib.

That big blob in the Straits indicates massive moisture transport from the west Carib.
Very quick convection firing on the infeed from the GoM.

Looks like it'll ramp up quickly once it hits the water.

One big tower and all the little pesky ULL's and PVS's will be swatted out in a matter of an hour.

[3090]

Appears to me as a very non pro, pretty darn good environment in place for organization and intensification. And having a 72+/- hour window of opportunity, does not make things better.

[GCANE]

Radar outlines a closeup view of the moisture transport very well

[3090]

Still somewhat disorganized, good.

Only for now. It will be a very slow mover with some good amount of time over some extremely warm waters and a very low shear environment. We all know how quickly systems can ramp up, or no? Recent system named Laura, should come to mind. And NO, I am not saying this will be a Laura type of system.

[xironman]

The center could easily migrate to that convective burst over the northern keys.