ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chemmers]

When it moves into the gulf could see rapid intensification maybe??

[tailgater]

The center could easily migrate to that convective burst over the northern keys.

Even without any migration /reformation it’s south of the NHC track forecast path thus far. The center seems to moving into Ponce de Leon bay now.

[xironman]

For the area off the keys

Special Marine Warning
GMZ052-072-121115-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0341.200912T1033Z-200912T1115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Key West FL
633 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The National Weather Service in Key West has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 60 nm...

* Until 715 AM EDT.

* At 632 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms with possible waterspouts were
located along a line extending from 10 nm east of Islamorada Hump
to 5 nm northeast of Floyd`s Wall Northeast, moving northeast at
20 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...National Weather Service Meteorologist.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can quickly form and capsize boats, cause
considerable damage to vessels and create suddenly higher
waves. Expect wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, suddenly
higher waves, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

* Strong thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters should seek safe harbor now, and remain there until
threatening weather has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 2517 8023 2492 7989 2463 8010 2485 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 205DEG 20KT 2484 8027 2473 8013

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.00IN

[Nimbus]

Homestead reported a pressure of 1003mb when the LLC passed over it, winds gusted over 40 mph.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

Clear flip in wind direction for NNE to SE at 2 AM.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fwyf1

New burst of convection as the LLC tracks over the Florida Everglades this morning.

[jlauderdal]

Well we survived a very tense overnight period, damage assessment complete... It made a good run at TS status, convective envelope seems to be stationary for now...land interaction may have put the brakes on forward progress. Lets hope it behaves in the gulf, Laura was enough for our friends to the NW.

This system should serve as a warning for the rest of the season, I know the cape verde systems get the headlines but beware, west of 60 is far more dangerous for the united states.

[NDG]

Like I mentioned last night, the northerly shear was going to keep the LLC on a further southern track and so it has, it is about to get back into the gulf much quicker and more south than forecasted.
The 12z models will be interesting to see.

[GCANE]

Appears to be tightening up and intensifying.
Well south of forecast track.

[GCANE]

Quickly coming together

[gatorcane]

Like I mentioned last night, the northerly shear was going to keep the LLC on a further southern track and so it has, it is about to get back into the gulf much quicker and more south than forecasted.
The 12z models will be interesting to see.

Yes seems more south so good call on that. It looks like it should have more time over water which won’t be good.

Saved loop:

[robbielyn]

Like I mentioned last night, the northerly shear was going to keep the LLC on a further southern track and so it has, it is about to get back into the gulf much quicker and more south than forecasted.
The 12z models will be interesting to see.

One weather youtuber last night said if went south then could head to texas. he showed ensembles that had two bundles, if went north then ms/al. if went south would miss the trough head to la/tx.

[GCANE]

The tower in the Keys is definitely pulling the surface low to the south into the Florida Bay.

[GCANE]

Steering is changing from WNW to more NW

[boca]

The sun is out in Coconut Creek and I said to myself last night this is a Keys storm.

[stormlover2013]

Is it going through the straits now ?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html

[NDG]

It will be interesting to see the 12z early models to see if they shift with the further south fix at 12z by the NHC.

[stormlover2013]

It will be interesting to see the 12z early models to see if they shift with the further south fix at 12z by the NHC.

Pin point on radar where center is at please

[NDG]

Is it going through the straits now ?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html

That's the mid level circulation, the LLC is inland on the SW tip of the Peninsula/Monroe County about to come out on to the GOM.

[cajungal]

It will be interesting to see the 12z early models to see if they shift with the further south fix at 12z by the NHC.

Would a shift further south shift the track further west like the euro?

[DestinHurricane]

It will be interesting to see the 12z early models to see if they shift with the further south fix at 12z by the NHC.

Would a shift further south shift the track further west like the euro?

Maybe, maybe not. If it is stronger because of it then maybe it will move north. If it's still weak then will go west.

[NDG]

It will be interesting to see the 12z early models to see if they shift with the further south fix at 12z by the NHC.

Pin point on radar where center is at please