gatorcane wrote:Wow After run after run of a major hurricane the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro
https://i.postimg.cc/TY3W4mxG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh30-210.gif
Nearly drops development like a rock! Euro too is much weaker.
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gatorcane wrote:Wow After run after run of a major hurricane the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro
https://i.postimg.cc/TY3W4mxG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh30-210.gif
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z Euro drags the system due north and completely dissipates it.
No words. After run-after-run of showing a major hurricane recurving away from land, completely drops it right before genesis despite good agreement with every other major global model.
Euro might actually be the worst model at predicting TC genesis. NAVGEM is better.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z Euro drags the system due north and completely dissipates it.
No words. After run-after-run of showing a major hurricane recurving away from land, completely drops it right before genesis despite good agreement with every other major global model.
Euro might actually be the worst model at predicting TC genesis. NAVGEM is better.
Guess I was wrong, it wasn't just the Euro. The models are all no longer showing development of this system.
Had a feeling this would be another strugglecane. The MDR is not capable of supporting a major hurricane this year.
aspen wrote:12z ICON refuses to let 95L interact with 97L. Because of that, it gets further west and is able to recurve into warmer waters, and at 120 hrs it has an intensifying Hurricane Teddy in a region capable of supporting a Cat 4 hurricane.
It seems like the model trends are pointing towards a system that recurves well away from the Lesser Antilles, but has the potential to become a powerful hurricane and meander for a while. Teddy could become a serious ACE producer that keeps to himself and doesn't really impact anyone.
TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.
TimSmith wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.
This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land
Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re sayingTimSmith wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.
This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land
cheezyWXguy wrote:Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re sayingTimSmith wrote:
This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land
The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90
Loveweather12 wrote:I know. I know it’s a models page it’s just blank statements they made don’t help & can get people off guard. But Interested to see where Teddy Goes.cheezyWXguy wrote:Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re saying
The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90
Fishing wrote:Loveweather12 wrote:I know. I know it’s a models page it’s just blank statements they made don’t help & can get people off guard. But Interested to see where Teddy Goes.cheezyWXguy wrote:The season is not over. Models can barely predict 5 days out, let alone 90
They used to have a disclaimer on here that was required and have done away with it. It’s the opinion of the poster and after a while you get used to it and you’ll recognize names etc. I’m sure not many of us took that as gospel. We who live on the east coast and in particular have been through hurricanes and recovery definitely know better.
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Loveweather12 wrote:So basically what you & “The Storm Expert” are saying is that the season is over for East Coast Residents? You alluded to that & I just want to make sure what you mean. If the season is over for us East coast people, especially in FL, I will surely stop watching the tropics then. I just want to understand what you’re sayingTimSmith wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.
This is post is great.. Not just that it is spot on scientifically, but it is very great news for us east coastal residents! Perhaps we could find a way to make it stay like this. Maybe Washington could create a ridge blaster in the name of national safety??? Anyways, still think soon to be Teddy is gonna stay south for quite a while & intensification looks clearly primed - let's just hope , as we continue to monitor, that the models tell us he'll be making that turn before any land
FireRat wrote:Good to see that at least the model trends for 20 are hinting at a fish... however one word of caution:
Pay attention to what's going on with Rene, the models have taken a bizarre turn with Rene and consensus has him diving SW all the way towards being just above the northern Lesser Antilles in 144 hours. This makes me think that whatever forces Rene SW could probably also block 20/Teddy from recurving so fast, especially if he was to do this in the same general area and around the same time as Rene's projected hard left.
It's still not set in stone that future Teddy will miss the Leewards.
Here's to hoping that model trends don't change tomorrow and have a threat on the table once again. Hopefully the Rene models are on crack.
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