ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

So as we see it possibly stacking, does that mean more poleward movement as Levi Cowan stated yesterday.

I remember Michael a couple of years ago was eh to start with and then boom.

well it would hv possibly if it had gone more north to begin with but now that the llc has moved southward it will head more wnw toward LA/MS. It will miss the trough picking it up most likely.

[aspen]

MPIs in the Gulf are high enough to support a <910 mbar system. However, TD19/Sally still has plenty of work to do in order to get ready for RI, and I highly doubt we’ll deal with another Gulf major...as of now.

[us89]

This should be upgraded. plenty of data for a TS>

and now Fowey rocks reporting sustained 41 mph winds

09 12 9:00 am SE 35 38 - - - - 29.75 +0.02 81.1 84.4 - - - -
09 12 8:00 am SSE 30 34 - - - - 29.75 +0.02 79.5 84.4 - - - -

Fowey Rocks is elevated though...apparently the anemometer there is 144 ft AGL.

[caneman]

Yikes!! Really looks to be starting to ramp now

[Airboy]

When you look at tha sat you have the feeling it's just waiting to explode when it's enters the gulf......

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1304795131200114690

[Dean4Storms]

Shear is definitely lessening and the stacking with the MLC looks imminent. Bet this takes off later today.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1304793796065079296

[us89]

Still a depression:

Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[gfsperpendicular]

Forecasted as a 70kt/80mph hurricane at landfall now.

[Aric Dunn]

This should be upgraded. plenty of data for a TS>

and now Fowey rocks reporting sustained 41 mph winds

09 12 9:00 am SE 35 38 - - - - 29.75 +0.02 81.1 84.4 - - - -
09 12 8:00 am SSE 30 34 - - - - 29.75 +0.02 79.5 84.4 - - - -

Fowey Rocks is elevated though...apparently the anemometer there is 144 ft AGL.

Thats what a 98% reduction.. so 40mph.. lol

[NDG]

Who is Pasch kidding,

From his discussion forecast.

The depression has been moving a little north of west, or about
280/8 kt.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0903.shtml?

[MGC]

11am advisory has hurricane very near me Tuesday morning. What a birthday present! NHC has been very consistent with its forecast track of a landfall near LA/MS border Tuesday. Time to batten down the hatches....MGC

[stormhunter7]

Oh look its farther to the SW.. who would have thought.. lol

How many times has a system come in in SE Florida and moved SW??? Didn't Katrina do that too?

[bella_may]

11am advisory has hurricane very near me Tuesday morning. What a birthday present! NHC has been very consistent with its forecast track of a landfall near LA/MS border Tuesday. Time to batten down the hatches....MGC

Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

[lhpfish]

39mph gust at pompano beach air park. Winds have definitely picked up here the last two hours

[MississippiWx]

So strange that the NHC is so reluctant to upgrade this to a TS. It has the data and the looks. A northerly motion is umm...confusing, to say the least.

[NDG]

L is the 11 AM position, X is where clearly the LLC is based on radar and surface obserbations.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

You guys know the NHC is conservative right

[NDG]

So strange that the NHC is so reluctant to upgrade this to a TS. It has the data and the looks. A northerly motion is umm...confusing, to say the least.

I am sure recon will find TS force winds with that band just south of the Keys.