ATL: SALLY - Models

[Steve]

NAM 12km has it south of the mouth of the river. Not sure I’m buying it but NAM can’t always handle positioning of a center and has been known to jump it around.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=63

[Steve]

NAM 12km stalls this offshore and looks like it's wanting to make a cut toward Plaquemines Parish or the MS Gulf Coast. Here it is at 81 hours, moving but it sat down there for a couple days. Could be some tornado threats from Harrison County eastward over to Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties if this is right. Stay tuned to GCANE and helicity the next day or two.

Solid Cat 2

[Steve]

The stall offshore is a loop, and it looks to be heading toward the MS or AL Gulf Coast after 84 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=84

[Steve]

Early Cycle 12z Guidance

[Steve]

And the experimental track (COAMPS I think) is more Franklin County, Florida at 06z. That should adjust left with time.

[bella_may]

Has Mississippi coast written all over it

[3090]

And the experimental track (COAMPS I think) is more Franklin County, Florida at 06z. That should adjust left with time.

Well where do you expect it to go? I mean what is your scientific, well educated synopsis? Curious.

[bella_may]

HWRF shifted east to a SE Mississippi landfall ya 964 MB sorry if someone posted that already

[MidnightRain]

Models still initializing north of the center, which is also still moving due west. I expect the consensus to continue to migrate west.

[Steve]

And the experimental track (COAMPS I think) is more Franklin County, Florida at 06z. That should adjust left with time.

https://i.imgur.com/X4P5RU1.png

Well where do you expect it to go? I mean what is your scientific, well educated synopsis? Curious.

I don't really have an opinion on where 19 is going to go. I don't think it will go into Franklin County, Florida (which is just a bit east of Panama City) which was why I commented on the experimental track probably due to adjust west in future runs.

But to answer your question - maybe Boothville to Ft. Walton, or in tighter, Slidell to Pascagoula? Possible loop in the North Gulf?

[Steve]

ICON stalls out at the MS Gulf Coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91212&fh=0

[HeeBGBz]

Has Mississippi coast written all over it

It's sure looking like it. The path is making me more spooked. A lot of K reminders. This one looks like its itching to break out and get mean.

Here we blow again.

Halfhearted wave from Biloxi.

[PTPatrick]

Icon looks pretty much like a Georges redo from 1998...maybe with more of a Elena type track along the coast. If it stays off shore more and then right hooks into Mississippi surge in Jackson and Mobile counties will be formidable. Flooding from rain will obviously be an issue too. Not as worried about wind though as these storms coming into that region need to move fast to maintain their wind. When I look back at all the storms it’s the fast movers that had lots of wind (Frederic, Ivan/Elena). The stallers not so much. Georges was kind of a moderate wind event but it was wet and lasted so long it did a number on a lot of roofs. But the flooding east of pascagoula was record breaking at the time, pre Katrina.

[bella_may]

ICON more SE and stronger this run

[Steve]

GFS is up to 42 hours and is sort of fast to that point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=42

[Steve]

GFS into SELA upper 990’s this run. It’s going NE after landfall but it’s not out far enough to see if it continues loops or stalls.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=42

[PTrackerLA]

Big shift west on 12z UKMET, to just east of Grand Isle, LA

[PTPatrick]

Looked like gfs was a tad west too but not as far as grand isle. More like up over the mouth, Katrina looking pathInto ms but slow.

[Steve]

GFS takes its time moving across the Gulf South and ends up in the Atlantic pretty far down the coast as a tilted ridge builds in NW to SE. Remnants exit GA Coast in what might end up being a Part 2 scenario if it does come off the coast heading Southeast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=108

[NDG]

Like I mentioned earlier this morning, based on the 12z sounding there was more ridging to the north than what the GFS was showing, it adjusted nicely at 12z and it continues to show more ridging as it tracks WNW across the GOM over the next 48 hrs so it cannot go north towards the FL Panhandle/Mobile Bay as some models show.