ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#721 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:44 am

Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#722 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:44 am

Looks like the mid level center is now migrating northward toward the LLC to its NW. I think they'll align and become vertically stacked off Cape Sable-Everglades City in a couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#723 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:46 am

Thunderstorms continue to rotate up shear as the circulation reorganizes. The motion is very slow as it is basically in the same place as it was at 7:00 this morning. To me, that doesn’t bode well as the center could be vertically stacked on its entire 3 day track across the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#724 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:47 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.

Yes the HH is currently in route south of Pensacola attm
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#725 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:51 am

ronjon wrote:Looks like the mid level center is now migrating northward toward the LLC to its NW. I think they'll align and become vertically stacked off Cape Sable-Everglades City in a couple of hours.


Yes indeed. They are stacking vertically now. Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, this cyclone will be off to the races as it tracks underneath an anticyclone across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#726 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:52 am

Should be completely offshore in about and hour. convection start to explode already on the east side.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#727 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:54 am

tailgater wrote:
Frank P wrote:
ronyan wrote:
That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.


True but it needs to get thru lake ponchatrain or just south at wnw for that to occur. Tbd


A path like Betsy in 65 took, is one of the worst cases scenario’s for Nola, just south and west of the Mississippi River at 45-60 degree angle


1947 is likely worst case
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#728 Postby 3090 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG


You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?
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ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#729 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:01 pm

Heavy small-drop tropical rain here...

East to west low-hanging tropical clouds overhead...

Patches of hazy sun...Center is well to our south...Light winds...
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#730 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:06 pm

3090 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG


You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?


I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#731 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:12 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.


Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#732 Postby robbielyn » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:12 pm

Blinhart wrote:
3090 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG


You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?


I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

He may or may not type too much because he fell and broke his wrist. so a little less commentary at least for now. probably saving it til things get more critical.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#733 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:15 pm

Center is crossing the coast.. ( might be a couple of small eddys from the friction). Once the east side gets over water and the inflow is not longer inhibited. we should see more of a concentraion around the center pretty quickly there after.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#734 Postby us89 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.


Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.


The station on Virginia Key has also been reporting TS-force sustained winds on and off this morning.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#735 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Should be completely offshore in about and hour. convection start to explode already on the east side.


Edit: I forgot to post this a few minutes ago, got stuck with the 12z HWRF coming in stronger.

It will be interesting if the recon will fly through the curbed band closest to the LLC which is inland over the marshlands of the Everglades, I am sure that's where the strongest winds are at flight level.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#736 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:18 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
3090 wrote:
You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?


I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

He may or may not type too much because he fell and broke his wrist. so a little less commentary at least for now. probably saving it til things get more critical.



Did not know that, hope everything is ok with him.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#737 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.


Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.


I am sure the recon will find TS force winds offshore for the upgrade.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#738 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:23 pm

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Guess we will see what recon finds...they are on the way I believe.


Recon won't tell us more than the numerous surface obs will. That one buoy offshore Miami keeps reporting 35-40 kt winds but nearby land obs have 15 kt winds.


I am sure the recon will find TS force winds offshore for the upgrade.


yeah.

and there are little to no surface obs in the upper keys where all the TS winds have been on radar.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#739 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:23 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
3090 wrote:
You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?


I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

He may or may not type too much because he fell and broke his wrist. so a little less commentary at least for now. probably saving it til things get more critical.


Even the models are having trouble early in the forecast due to the shear out of the north stripping the LLC.
I'd guess the LLC is going to stop chasing the convection and stack pretty soon, then the models have a stall close to landfall to be concerned about. edit to add: Sounds like Wxman57 will have to ride something with wider tires and a coaster brake for a while.
Last edited by Nimbus on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#740 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:24 pm

Blinhart wrote:
3090 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG


You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?


I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?


Have a broken right wrist. Titanium plate installed Thursday to connect the 3 pieces of my radius bone. Hard to type much left-handed. Small Cat 1 into Gulf coast. This is no Katrina. Heavy rain may be biggest threat.
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