ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Man, the Keys are getting POUNDED

[Aric Dunn]

Center exiting the coast..

now the fun begins..

[Nuno]

Should be completely offshore in about and hour. convection start to explode already on the east side.

Edit: I forgot to post this a few minutes ago, got stuck with the 12z HWRF coming in stronger.

It will be interesting if the recon will fly through the curbed band closest to the LLC which is inland over the marshlands of the Everglades, I am sure that's where the strongest winds are at flight level.

https://i.imgur.com/c5PmFGj.gif

Clearly developing a sort of proto-eyewall like feature of sorts in that gif. Should see it intensify once it's fully off the peninsula.

[robbielyn]

Man, the Keys are getting POUNDED

They always do

[wxman57]

Center is NW side of convection. Well offshore. Not much wind Keys northward.

[Sanibel]

Hazy look...(Oh boy)...

[3090]

Very strong radar signature with TStorm activity. But mostly void on the western half. I surmise once clear of land, the west side will be wrapping up.

[ConvergenceZone]

You speak in vague terms, as far as any future development goes. Does your current observation mean, or portend to be anything going forward?

I was going to ask Wxman57 pretty much the same thing. What are your observations and projections of this system?? Are you feeling that they are underestimating the ridge to the North or not?

Have a broken right wrist. Titanium plate installed Thursday to connect the 3 pieces of my radius bone. Hard to type much left-handed. Small Cat 1 into Gulf coast. This is no Katrina. Heavy rain may be biggest threat.

Hope you feel better wxman. Great News from a Wind Standpoint. I was thinking Cat 1 at well. Also glad to hear it's going to be Small. So it looks like the wind won't be an issue as you are saying, but potential flooding rains.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still looks sheared, which has caused the vortex to be consistently tilted. I agree with wxman's center estimate. Perhaps into the overnight hours we may see an increased in organization and intensification, but for now, I'm not expecting too much.

The FL Keys are getting hammered with rain... Marathon has reported over four inches of rain in just the last three hours alone. I'm sure other locations have received much more.

[tailgater]

Wobble to the northwest, might keep it on shore longer. vortex or center I’m not real sure

HH descending

[StPeteMike]

Would the slower speed allow land interaction to have a better chance of keeping this closer to the coast longer?

[Do_For_Love]

The FL Keys are getting hammered with rain... Marathon has reported over four inches of rain in just the last three hours alone. I'm sure other locations have received much more.

Wow, they most be dealing with a lot of flooding. Nineteen doesn't seem to be going anywhere in a hurry either...

[Aric Dunn]

Another look at the center just now exiting the coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Still looks sheared, which has caused the vortex to be consistently tilted. I agree with wxman's center estimate. Perhaps into the overnight hours we may see an increased in organization and intensification, but for now, I'm not expecting too much.

The FL Keys are getting hammered with rain... Marathon has reported over four inches of rain in just the last three hours alone. I'm sure other locations have received much more.

There are some good Florida Key Cams out there too, I'll have to check them out....

[bella_may]

Finally got the upgrade

[MississippiWx]

Convection associated with bands over the peninsula is helping to erode the trof to the north. Notice the cirrus clouds are now blowing off to the East rather than the south like earlier. This should help continue organizational trends.

[Nimbus]

Very strong radar signature with TStorm activity. But mostly void on the western half. I surmise once clear of land, the west side will be wrapping up.

There is a tight little LLC offshore which recon will find, you can almost see it in the visible imagery.
I'm more concerned about landfall and the model run inconsistency EG stalling over water or land, landfall east or west of Nola. There are some 10% to 30% scenarios that *could* cause some major problems and they might be "random".

[edu2703]

We have Tropical Storm Sally

[ClarCari]

This is the last time we get to say we have the earliest “letter” storm since after Stan in 2005 we had a sneaky unnamed SS go unnoticed lol

[MarioProtVI]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Lol?