ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Man, the Keys are getting POUNDED

Lol, came down to Key West yesterday. Holy smokes the rainfall and the town is flooding quickly with high tide coming. Some 30-45 mph gusts.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC has upgraded it to Sally and refers to it in the text, but all their product headers still say "Tropical Depression 19"

[CrazyC83]

The upgrade must have come in so fast they had to rush it out before they could edit the headers. I'd expect corrected versions shortly. They were probably waiting then realized they rushed - the alternative would have been to put out the advisory as normal then upgrade in a quick Tropical Cyclone Update.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So.. it's Tropical Storm Nineteen now?

Code: Select all

244
WTNT34 KNHC 121756
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[AnnularCane]

Yes, 40 mph Tropical Depression Nineteen.

Okay, just looked again. Now they're calling her Sally.

[Do_For_Love]

Still looks sheared, which has caused the vortex to be consistently tilted. I agree with wxman's center estimate. Perhaps into the overnight hours we may see an increased in organization and intensification, but for now, I'm not expecting too much.

The FL Keys are getting hammered with rain... Marathon has reported over four inches of rain in just the last three hours alone. I'm sure other locations have received much more.

There are some good Florida Key Cams out there too, I'll have to check them out....

You can see some pretty serious flooding in Key West on this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDaCD1u6tI0

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sally's definitely a tiny storm. The shear that's over the system is enough to make the LLC on the edge of the convective envelop but not enough to cause it to be exposed. Small size also makes it very prone to rapid changes in intensity, especially as the LLC moves into the water and shear begins to lessen.

[Aric Dunn]

25.6N 81.3W

[aspen]

Sally has absolutely crushed the record for the earliest 18th named storm, beating Stan ‘05 by 20 days. With more storms expected to form soon, 2005 will likely see more of its records obliterated by >2 weeks.

[Nimbus]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Lol?

I would have given it a heading of about 273 degrees but we can wait for recon..

[northjaxpro]

Sally's definitely a tiny storm. The shear that's over the system is enough to make the LLC on the edge of the convective envelop but not enough to cause it to be exposed. Small size also makes it very prone to rapid changes in intensity, especially as the LLC moves into the water and shear begins to lessen.

https://i.imgur.com/Am7GzYs.jpg

Yes, 2020. The year of small tropical cyclones just keeps on developing in bunches. The small cyclones really make me nervous as jyst.like you explained Kyle, they can ramp up so quickly intensity. They create their own unique environment in several instances.

They can also deteoriate just as quickly but in.this scenario with an anticyclone in place, I don't see any adverse conditions going forward with Sally.. Huge concerns with this one!

[PTPatrick]

Sally has absolutely crushed the record for the earliest 18th named storm, beating Stan ‘05 by 20 days. With more storms expected to form soon, 2005 will likely see more of its records obliterated by >2 weeks.

This is why sally worries me so much. If pattern is similar to 2005 in some ways it stands to reason storms in the gulf could continue to over perform. Remover that was the year we had Rita and Katrina back to back...worries Laura and sally could be in similar company. Obviously lots to watch but we are back in a pattern where the gulf can produce big ones quickly (Laura, Michael) so I am watching this with baited breath

[3090]

Sally has absolutely crushed the record for the earliest 18th named storm, beating Stan ‘05 by 20 days. With more storms expected to form soon, 2005 will likely see more of its records obliterated by >2 weeks.

This is why sally worries me so much. If pattern is similar to 2005 in some ways it stands to reason storms in the gulf could continue to over perform. Remover that was the year we had Rita and Katrina back to back...worries Laura and sally could be in similar company. Obviously lots to watch but we are back in a pattern where the gulf can produce big ones quickly (Laura, Michael) so I am watching this with baited breath

Not to be overly corrective, but Katrina and Rita, were not back to back. Neither are Laura and Sally.

[ClarCari]

Sally has absolutely crushed the record for the earliest 18th named storm, beating Stan ‘05 by 20 days. With more storms expected to form soon, 2005 will likely see more of its records obliterated by >2 weeks.

This is why sally worries me so much. If pattern is similar to 2005 in some ways it stands to reason storms in the gulf could continue to over perform. Remover that was the year we had Rita and Katrina back to back...worries Laura and sally could be in similar company. Obviously lots to watch but we are back in a pattern where the gulf can produce big ones quickly (Laura, Michael) so I am watching this with baited breath

Not to be overly corrective, but Katrina and Rita, were not back to back. Neither are Laura and Sally.

I think back to back as in the same season. On average you expect a bad storm every other year, and another hallmark of hyperactive seasons are multiple devastating landfalls. And to the U.S. at the time of Rita, it really did feel as if Katrina had happened only yesterday. I’m sure everyone still recovering from Laura feels similar to Sally:/

[Aric Dunn]

25.6N 81.3W

https://i.ibb.co/R3J5gGk/Capture.png

Just off the coast.. per Recon 25.617N 81.383W

[JSDS]

Sally has absolutely crushed the record for the earliest 18th named storm, beating Stan ‘05 by 20 days. With more storms expected to form soon, 2005 will likely see more of its records obliterated by >2 weeks.

This is why sally worries me so much. If pattern is similar to 2005 in some ways it stands to reason storms in the gulf could continue to over perform. Remover that was the year we had Rita and Katrina back to back...worries Laura and sally could be in similar company. Obviously lots to watch but we are back in a pattern where the gulf can produce big ones quickly (Laura, Michael) so I am watching this with baited breath

Not to be overly corrective, but Katrina and Rita, were not back to back. Neither are Laura and Sally.

With all due respect, I live in between where Katrina & Rita hit, and had effects from both (wind damage and loss of power for a week each time). When you are still dealing with the aftermath of one storm when the next one hits, it sure feels like they are back to back.

[PTPatrick]

Sally has absolutely crushed the record for the earliest 18th named storm, beating Stan ‘05 by 20 days. With more storms expected to form soon, 2005 will likely see more of its records obliterated by >2 weeks.

This is why sally worries me so much. If pattern is similar to 2005 in some ways it stands to reason storms in the gulf could continue to over perform. Remover that was the year we had Rita and Katrina back to back...worries Laura and sally could be in similar company. Obviously lots to watch but we are back in a pattern where the gulf can produce big ones quickly (Laura, Michael) so I am watching this with baited breath

Not to be overly corrective, but Katrina and Rita, were not back to back. Neither are Laura and Sally.

I guess back to back is relative. A month apart is close in major hurricane time, not to be overly corrective.

[Aric Dunn]

last several hours its been moving NW.. if this keeps up it will move ashore again over Naples in the next couple hours.

[wxman57]

Surface center is out ahead of mid-level radar center.

[blp]

I don't see 270 W movement based on radar. Looks more WNW or NW to me.