ATL: SALLY - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#201 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:27 pm

NDG wrote:This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.

https://i.imgur.com/DdUCqe5.png


**** just got real. Cat 3 in St. Bernard? Maybe 12-24 hours of inner-core? I was supposed to head back to New Orleans tomorrow, but we may just turn around and come back here to Pensacola on Monday. ****.

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Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#202 Postby bella_may » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:28 pm

MississippiWx wrote:HWRF :double:

951mb 130kts 850mb winds at 57 hours off MS coast.

Thats a long time to deal with that kind of wind. Really hope it doesn’t verify
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#203 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:28 pm

kevin wrote:Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies.


The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#204 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:34 pm

NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies.


The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.


For sure. But Laura is a fresh HWRF memory. Let's hope it was lucky then. We're at 63-66 hours until landfall on HWRF which is in the realm of where it's often the best performing model. This is Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so everyone from Jefferson Parish over toward Destin needs to get their act together pretty quick if HWRF is right. They'll be no time for evacuations, and there are likely to be runs on stores. Don't sleep on whatever you need to get done.

And also if it is right, global models pretty much suck if they couldn''t even see a landfalling major 4-5 days out.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#205 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:42 pm

Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies.


The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.


For sure. But Laura is a fresh HWRF memory. Let's hope it was lucky then. We're at 63-66 hours until landfall on HWRF which is in the realm of where it's often the best performing model. This is Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so everyone from Jefferson Parish over toward Destin needs to get their act together pretty quick if HWRF is right. They'll be no time for evacuations, and there are likely to be runs on stores. Don't sleep on whatever you need to get done.

And also if it is right, global models pretty much suck if they couldn''t even see a landfalling major 4-5 days out.



You are speaking the REAL truth here Steve. It has been frustrating this season in analysis for me and everyone. 2020 has been mindboggling with the Global model runs. Still continiung its struggles.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#206 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:43 pm

If the HWRF is right then this will have to be the biggest failures from the global's I've ever seen
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#207 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:47 pm

Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies.


The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.


For sure. But Laura is a fresh HWRF memory. Let's hope it was lucky then. We're at 63-66 hours until landfall on HWRF which is in the realm of where it's often the best performing model. This is Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so everyone from Jefferson Parish over toward Destin needs to get their act together pretty quick if HWRF is right. They'll be no time for evacuations, and there are likely to be runs on stores. Don't sleep on whatever you need to get done.

And also if it is right, global models pretty much suck if they couldn''t even see a landfalling major 4-5 days out.


Was also right with Nana and Hanna. The HWRF is really only spaz-tastic with disorganized systems without a closed LLC. Most global models missed Laura less than 4 days out, as we all remember.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#208 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:48 pm

The HWRF shows an event that NOLA has never seen in the modern era. It's hard to say anything could be worse than Katrina, but NOLA would get hit by much stronger winds then they did in Katrina and the flooding from rain could rival that of Harvey's(due to how NOLA is shaped. I don't think we'll see totals quite as high, but 20-30" on the HWRF run isn't impossible). There are a lot of old buildings in NOLA and the infrastructure isn't like South Florida so being under prolonged Cat-2+ winds would be horrifying. Not to mention that you're hoping the Levees can hold too. Hopefully the HWRF is overdoing it, but I'm definitely concerned about a scenario like this.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#209 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:50 pm

Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies.


The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.


For sure. But Laura is a fresh HWRF memory. Let's hope it was lucky then. We're at 63-66 hours until landfall on HWRF which is in the realm of where it's often the best performing model. This is Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so everyone from Jefferson Parish over toward Destin needs to get their act together pretty quick if HWRF is right. They'll be no time for evacuations, and there are likely to be runs on stores. Don't sleep on whatever you need to get done.

And also if it is right, global models pretty much suck if they couldn''t even see a landfalling major 4-5 days out.


Destin? We will be well away from the center. Not planning on doing any prep unless track drastically changes.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#210 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:52 pm

Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:
kevin wrote:Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies.


The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.


For sure. But Laura is a fresh HWRF memory. Let's hope it was lucky then. We're at 63-66 hours until landfall on HWRF which is in the realm of where it's often the best performing model. This is Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so everyone from Jefferson Parish over toward Destin needs to get their act together pretty quick if HWRF is right. They'll be no time for evacuations, and there are likely to be runs on stores. Don't sleep on whatever you need to get done.

And also if it is right, global models pretty much suck if they couldn''t even see a landfalling major 4-5 days out.


I will be waiting for the 12z Euro and if the TVCN shifts much closer to Nola I will be sounding the alarm to my friends & family in Nola to start planning and preparations.
This is like the Friday afternoon before Katrina made landfall on Monday morning, Nola had less less than 60 hrs to get ready & evacuate, we evacuated late Saturday night after less traffic.
With some hurricane models now showing it to become a Cat 2-3 hurricane is better to be safe than sorry.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#211 Postby shiny-pebble » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:54 pm

This might not be the proper thread, but does the HWRF really blow everything up into a major? I feel like a lot of us only look at it when it blows thing up. How many storms this season did it over do??

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#212 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:54 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:
The good news is that I have seen the HWRF be way off at its 60-72 hr forecast, so it can still change over the next 24 hrs.


For sure. But Laura is a fresh HWRF memory. Let's hope it was lucky then. We're at 63-66 hours until landfall on HWRF which is in the realm of where it's often the best performing model. This is Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so everyone from Jefferson Parish over toward Destin needs to get their act together pretty quick if HWRF is right. They'll be no time for evacuations, and there are likely to be runs on stores. Don't sleep on whatever you need to get done.

And also if it is right, global models pretty much suck if they couldn''t even see a landfalling major 4-5 days out.


Destin? We will be well away from the center. Not planning on doing any prep unless track drastically changes.


Dude. If this verifies, there are likely to be prolonged rains and tornados and stuff up to 200 miles east. look at the satellite depictions and you’ll see Santa Rosa and Okaloosa Counties also under the gun if not the center. Water and gas is a minimum.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#213 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:55 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The HWRF shows an event that NOLA has never seen in the modern era. It's hard to say anything could be worse than Katrina, but NOLA would get hit by much stronger winds then they did in Katrina and the flooding from rain could rival that of Harvey's(due to how NOLA is shaped. I don't think we'll see totals quite as high, but 20-30" on the HWRF run isn't impossible). There are a lot of old buildings in NOLA and the infrastructure isn't like South Florida so being under prolonged Cat-2+ winds would be horrifying. Not to mention that you're hoping the Levees can hold too. Hopefully the HWRF is overdoing it, but I'm definitely concerned about a scenario like this.


Yes, , this has a potential to really be a nightmare scenario for the Big Easy. I too am very concerned for them if the HWRF verifies...
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#214 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:00 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:This might not be the proper thread, but does the HWRF really blow everything up into a major? I feel like a lot of us only look at it when it blows thing up. How many storms this season did it over do??

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The HWRF seems to struggle with storms like 95L that don't even have a closed LLC. However, it correctly saw Hanna's rapid intensification into a high-end Category 1, Nana's deepening to a Cat 1 before landfall, and most significantly was consistent for days that Laura would become a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, it saw all this while the global models, such as the GFS and ECMWF, showed nothing more than a weak tropical storm at most. It's not something that should be dismissed, especially as the theme this season has been storms explosively deepening right before landfall.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#215 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:14 pm

12z Euro, like a blend of its earlier 0z & 06z runs.

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#216 Postby AlabamaDave » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:36 pm

NDG wrote:This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.


Hmmm, yes this was always mentioned as a worst case track for New Orleans, but being way worse than Katrina would take some effort. Katrina flooded almost the entire city, and levees have been improved since then. I hope they were upgraded to account for all surge directions. Yikes. From a wind standpoint, yes this would be worse.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#217 Postby KimmieLa » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:41 pm

Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.

https://i.imgur.com/DdUCqe5.png


**** just got real. Cat 3 in St. Bernard? Maybe 12-24 hours of inner-core? I was supposed to head back to New Orleans tomorrow, but we may just turn around and come back here to Pensacola on Monday. ****.

https://i.imgur.com/5vHzaUp.png


Steve, I am very concerned about this. What are the chances of this coming to fruition? If it is higher than 50%, I am getting out of dodge, like tomorrow morning. Ahead of NOLA folks evacuation. What is your gut telling you?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#218 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:59 pm

I honestly think the shear is going to keep Sally capped from being a Cat 3+ at landfall. Even on the HWRF you can see how badly restricted Sally will be on the southern side. Cat 2 seems reasonable. HWRF is definitely upper-end of what's possible.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#219 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:08 pm

18Z early guidance.

With this slowing down and bending north and east at landfall I am getting quite concerned for flooding and tornado threat from Mississippi to NW Florida. Models showing 8 to 10 inches in NW FloridaImage

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#220 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:08 pm

Very strange 18z TVCN making landfall over central MS coast when the HWRF, GFS, Euro well to its west. Something else pulling it that far to the right but it can't be the crappy HMON which is the only one that far to the right.
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