ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is heading into WXMAN67's LLC so we will find out for sure

They already flew through area once... nothing there.. VDM was exactly where I said it was..

[ConvergenceZone]

Another poorly organized TS with hard to find TS winds.

Which is just the opposite of what Laura looked like. Laura looked amazing when it was emerging into the Gulf. Huge difference between Sally and Laura. Now I totally get why you are only calling for a Cat 1 at landfall. Makes perfect sense....

[wxman57]

Recon is heading into WXMAN67's LLC so we will find out for sure

Looks like an elongated center. No TS winds found.

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree with 57. Aric’s circulation is easily traceable, but just recently, outbound velocities have shown up on radar about 12mi south of Marco

[ConvergenceZone]

Recon is heading into WXMAN67's LLC so we will find out for sure

Looks like an elongated center. No TS winds found.

Wonder if it will be downgraded to a depression? We shall see!

[Jr0d]

So far in Key West we have had a couple inches of rain with more to come but very little wind. Low lying areas are flooded, which is typical.

While we may see more intense bands as Sally pulls away, given the light winds there is no need for storm warnings.

[wxman57]

Another poorly organized TS with hard to find TS winds.

Which is just the opposite of what Laura looked like. Laura looked amazing when it was emerging into the Gulf. Huge difference between Sally and Laura. Now I totally get why you are only calling for a Cat 1 at landfall. Makes perfect sense....

It does still have 60 hrs to organize

[DestinHurricane]

I'm not sure what you are seeing wxman. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance has found Aric's center.

As for TS winds, they have been reported at Fowey rock.

[wxman57]

Recon is heading into WXMAN67's LLC so we will find out for sure

Looks like an elongated center. No TS winds found.

Wonder if it will be downgraded to a depression? We shall see!

I'd say unlikely as NHC avoids downgrading systems affecting land, no matter what the plane finds.

[Nimbus]

Where did Sally come off Florida Wood key or Hog key?
Initial heading is important.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not sure what you are seeing wxman. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance has found Aric's center.

As for TS winds, they have been reported at Fowey rock.

The VDM isn’t necessarily the true center, and the center of this appears to be quite broad. Honestly I don’t think the exact center location matters much right now. Broadly speaking, the system is about where it’s supposed to be

[TheProfessor]

Another poorly organized TS with hard to find TS winds.

Which is just the opposite of what Laura looked like. Laura looked amazing when it was emerging into the Gulf. Huge difference between Sally and Laura. Now I totally get why you are only calling for a Cat 1 at landfall. Makes perfect sense....

Careful there, the storm certainly isn't the best looking tropical system, but the low level energies are stacked up to 700 mb and the 500 mb energy isn't too far off. With shear low and the storm moving slowly enough to consolidate is has a good chance to take off. It's going to have about the same amount of time that Hanna had and arguably a better environment while also entering the Gulf as a more organized system. I wouldn't underestimate this storm and a high end Cat-2 low end Cat-3 certainly isn't impossible assuming it gets a full 48-54 hours over waters.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure what you are seeing wxman. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance has found Aric's center.

As for TS winds, they have been reported at Fowey rock.

Just looking at real surface obs, not recon FL or SFMR winds. Plenty of SFC obs. That lighthouse at Fowey Rocks has been reporting wind speeds more than twice that of nearby land stations. What is the elevation of that anemometer?

[3090]

Recon is heading into WXMAN67's LLC so we will find out for sure

Looks like an elongated center. No TS winds found.

Wonder if it will be downgraded to a depression? We shall see!

Tropical Wave!

[Nimbus]

I'm not sure what you are seeing wxman. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance has found Aric's center.

As for TS winds, they have been reported at Fowey rock.

The VDM isn’t necessarily the true center, and the center of this appears to be quite broad. Honestly I don’t think the exact center location matters much right now. Broadly speaking, the system is about where it’s supposed to be

The HWRF run I looked at last night had the center emerging off Sanibel island.
Kind of important..

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we have landfall again around Marco island. Surface obs in marco island confirm along with recon.. that nothing is to the SW.

all surface obs and radar match up.

[ClarCari]

As far as Katrina comparisons go, this won’t have time to go up to a Cat 5 and back down to a 3 before landfall. What it does have time to do...could still be catastrophic.

[DestinHurricane]

I'm not sure what you are seeing wxman. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance has found Aric's center.

As for TS winds, they have been reported at Fowey rock.

Just looking at real surface obs, not recon FL or SFMR winds. Plenty of SFC obs.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fwyf1

Keep in mind not all locations have surface obs. There can be TS winds in between stations.

Regardless, Fowey Rock supports TS.

[MississippiWx]

Lol the models that strengthen this into a formidable hurricane don’t have this anymore organized than it is now. The circulation is still hugging the coastline so of course it’s not going to be any better organized yet. Once it clears land, inflow should increase on the northern side and it should wrap up a lot better.

[OuterBanker]

I'm concerned for NOLA. Not so much for damaging winds, but rain. Sally is already full of water, she could stall. Euro has 26 in in latest model.
Water is more damaging than wind.