ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TimSmith]

Another look at the center just now exiting the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/kKx7K6J/Capture.png

So I'm seeing they just changed on NHC she's now named Sally... did she seriously develop over the glades? Or did she stay south FLa bay, I've been outta loop as driving today

[wxman57]

Fowey Rocks anemometer is at 43.9 meters - way too high. Sally appears to have max winds 25-30 kts.

[NDG]

The 12z Euro's weak run on Sally does not make sense and thus the HWRF makes more sense of at least reaching Cat 1-2.

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1304867687844249600

[MississippiWx]

Fowey Rocks anemometer is at 43.9 meters - way too high.

The HH have also only sampled the SW portion of the storm. You know that’s the weakest part of a storm, especially a 40mph storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Another look at the center just now exiting the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/kKx7K6J/Capture.png

So I'm seeing they just changed on NHC she's now named Sally... did she seriously develop over the glades? Or did she stay south FLa bay, I've been outta loop as driving today

Honestly, I think it met the criteria for a ts last night at landfall. Mesovort or not, that tight circulation it had coincided with the llc location.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds the center very near the coast of Marco island. nothing to the south

with that one random ship report.

[wxman57]

Fowey Rocks anemometer is at 43.9 meters - way too high.

The HH have also only sampled the SW portion of the storm. You know that’s the weakest part of a storm, especially a 40mph storm.

Winds west of FL peninsula 20 kts or less. Only 25-30 kt winds appear to be offshore Miami

[Kingarabian]

What it does in the next 24 hours will determine its peak intensity.

[StormPyrate]

Recon finds the center very near the coast of Marco island. nothing to the south

with that one random ship report.

https://i.ibb.co/HCHt2Qp/Capture.png

North side of the cone

[Sciencerocks]

[ronjon]

Another look at the center just now exiting the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/kKx7K6J/Capture.png

So I'm seeing they just changed on NHC she's now named Sally... did she seriously develop over the glades? Or did she stay south FLa bay, I've been outta loop as driving today

Aric you're spot on with the LLC. Lowest pressure at Naples now at 29.69 in.

[NDG]

Fowey Rocks anemometer is at 43.9 meters - way too high.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1304795996921245696

[Nimbus]

looks like we have landfall again around Marco island. Surface obs in marco island confirm along with recon.. that nothing is to the SW.

all surface obs and radar match up.

OK I found the first recon wind shift up near the Pavilion keys..
The center must have come very close to Fowey rock for there to be a ~150 degree wind shift.
Homestead reported a lower pressure several hours later but that could have been a cell phenomena.
I think we can agree Sally isn't headed NW from Sanibel island?

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon finds the center very near the coast of Marco island. nothing to the south

with that one random ship report.

https://i.ibb.co/HCHt2Qp/Capture.png

That actually looks like it corroborates 57’s center. The circulation we tracked on radar appears to be on the coast over Marco island

[Kingarabian]

I think the NHC's intensity forecast is reasonable. Though it is the GOM and there's always the chance of a system going bonkers.

[TheProfessor]

Fowey Rocks anemometer is at 43.9 meters - way too high.

Even with reduction is supported tropical storm forced winds. I believe there were 39 knot sustained winds reported. With reduction of an anemometer at 50 meters it would be about 1.01 to 1.02 times higher than the surface. Even if we decided to take it at the 100 meter level where it would be 1.1 times higher that would still support 35 knot surface winds. You should know this.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

Another look at the center just now exiting the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/kKx7K6J/Capture.png

So I'm seeing they just changed on NHC she's now named Sally... did she seriously develop over the glades? Or did she stay south FLa bay, I've been outta loop as driving today

Aric you're spot on with the LLC. Lowest pressure at Naples now at 29.69 in.

Here are some surface obs as well .. for those that have disregarded recon ... and as you mentioned marco island also has the lowest pressure.. 1003mb

[SFLcane]

Fowey Rocks anemometer is at 43.9 meters - way too high.

The HH have also only sampled the SW portion of the storm. You know that’s the weakest part of a storm, especially a 40mph storm.

Winds west of FL peninsula 20 kts or less. Only 25-30 kt winds appear to be offshore Miami

FYI.... I have recorded several gusts to 45 mph on my weather station at my house in Sunrise FL. I am actually quite impressed. Winds sense have really dropped off

[NDG]

The much anticipated WNW heading has started, good job by the HWRF and Euro so far.