ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#81 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:03 pm

I’m 99.9% sure this will be a fish now! :lol:

The other 0.01% is if it goes west enough to threaten Bermuda or SE Canada.

Of course this is just going by model trends over the past 24-48hrs. and solely my opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#82 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:13 pm

AL, 20, 2020091218, , BEST, 0, 112N, 332W, 30, 1005, LO
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#83 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:23 pm

Welcome, AL202020! Hopefully it's a nice fish to ramp up ACE.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#84 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:26 pm

With these Best Tracks it almost seems as if these things are getting upgraded early lately. :lol:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#85 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:28 pm

Welcome TD #20, be nice to the fishies!! :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#86 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:31 pm

TD 20 will likely be forecast to become Teddy by tomorrow. If so, will break the record for earliest "T" storm.

By 23 DAYS
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#87 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:35 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Welcome TD #20, be nice to the fishies!! :cheesy:

The phish will have to be sacrificed for ACE. At least if Teddy follows a model like the ICON or HWRF, it’ll be an excellent ACE maker over the next week or so.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#88 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:36 pm

4 simultaneous active systems in the Atlantic. I've seen it before, but it's still pretty rare.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#89 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:36 pm

The way things are going, I may have to live on this forum 24/7 for a while if I'm going to stay caught up. :double:

But I wanna sleep too!
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#90 Postby ouragans » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:20 pm

It's 2020z in AL202020 :lol:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#91 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:31 pm

At least Teddy won't be able to "bear" down on anywhere, we hope!
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#92 Postby HuracanMaster » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:35 pm

Im not gonna let my guard down until I see that WNW motion.

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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#93 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:46 pm

Significant strengthening expected.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#94 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:07 pm

Seems the peak season is finally awake even if it overslept the alarm a bit.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#95 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:07 pm

Glad there’s been enough consistency lately to say this won’t be going too far west. Last thing we need is 2 systems with potential to become majors threatening land. Let the ACE flow
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#96 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:13 pm

ouragans wrote:It's 2020z in AL202020 :lol:


Also, I realized that because TD10 didn't get named, and since there is no Q name, AL202020 is the T storm, and T is the 20th letter of the alphabet. If only AL202020 had formed a bit later so that its 20th advisory would fall on the 20th... :lol:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#97 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:14 pm

In the 5pm discussion, the NHC notes that moderate shear and the system’s broad circulation will be the primary barriers to intensification for 36 hours. By that point, TD20/Teddy should have consolidated enough, and shear will drop to 10 kt or less for the next 2-3 days while the system moves over warm waters. While these aren’t warm enough to support a truly bonkers storm like at 50-55W, MPIs in the region are high enough for a Cat 4 hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#98 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:And we thought THIS would be the storm that would get the attention...instead it continues to lurk.


The invest's thread had about 10x the activity as this thread in the same time period! Perhaps now that it's been named it'll get some attention.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#99 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:40 pm

Seems likely to become a powerful hurricane, but move more poleward.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#100 Postby us89 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:47 pm

Abdullah wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:And we thought THIS would be the storm that would get the attention...instead it continues to lurk.


The invest's thread had about 10x the activity as this thread in the same time period! Perhaps now that it's been named it'll get some attention.


I doubt this thread will get a whole lot of activity as long as Sally and Paulette are still out there
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