ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Recon finds the center just west of Marco island matching up with radar.

About

25.8N 81.9W

Yeah that's way off the NHC's 5 pm advisory location lol.

[DestinHurricane]

Recon finds the center just west of Marco island matching up with radar.

About

25.8N 81.9W

Yeah that's way off the NHC's 5 pm advisory location lol.

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

[Blow_Hard]

Recon finds the center just west of Marco island matching up with radar.

About

25.8N 81.9W

Yeah that's way off the NHC's 5 pm advisory location lol.

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

[Blow_Hard]

Yeah that's way off the NHC's 5 pm advisory location lol.

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

[GumboCane83]

Yeah that's way off the NHC's 5 pm advisory location lol.

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

You mean East right?


They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

[DestinHurricane]

Yeah that's way off the NHC's 5 pm advisory location lol.

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

They actually adjusted the landfall point in MS east a little. But I mean tonight and tomorrow it's possible we will see east shifts because center seems to be outside cone right now.

[wxman57]

I'd classify Sally as a 25kt depression with a broad elongated center west of the convection. The lighthouse still has winds twice as high as nearby surface stations. If there are any winds of 30 kts or more then they are hiding well.

[Blow_Hard]

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

They actually adjusted the landfall point in MS east a little. But I mean tonight and tomorrow it's possible we will see east shifts because center seems to be outside cone right now.

I was just quoting what they said in their 5:00pm Forecast DIscussion. Not making any preps here either...our Probs of seeing any TS force winds was decreased significantly at the last Advisory from 47% to 30% so the trend seems to be not much impact and I'm definitely good with that. I will however, keep an eye on it.

[DestinHurricane]

They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

They actually adjusted the landfall point in MS east a little. But I mean tonight and tomorrow it's possible we will see east shifts because center seems to be outside cone right now.

I was just quoting what they said in their 5:00pm Forecast DIscussion. Not making any preps here either...our Probs of seeing any TS force winds was decreased significantly at the last Advisory from 47% to 30% so the trend seems to be not much impact and I'm definitely good with that. I will however, keep an eye on it.

Recon found center east of NHC position. Models should come back east some.

[Emmett_Brown]

The NHC discussion mentions TS winds in the FL straits from a scatterometer pass earlier in the day to support setting winds at 35kt

[robbielyn]

Tornado warning SW Polk county including ft meade til 6:00 pm, due to squall line passing through. East Hillsborough need to keep watch.

[Sanibel]

Naked spiral passing overhead with clear sky above it...Clouds in motion...

Winds gusting now...

[psyclone]

It may technically be a depression right now but the border between that and a minimal ts in inconsequential as far as sensible wx anyway. I find it more useful to look at the convective nature of the system. To that end...the band situated south of the system over the keys and south florida is impressive and looks poised to continue to pound those areas for a long window as our system slowly stacks and organizes off to the northwest. it's going to be impactful from a rain standpoint

[3090]

Yep, well east of it. Center looks to be moving more N than NHC heading as well. Could see shifts east coming.

They just nudged the Cone a smoosh West in the latest Advisory.

They actually adjusted the landfall point in MS east a little. But I mean tonight and tomorrow it's possible we will see east shifts because center seems to be outside cone right now.

Do people EVER learn, to avoid the small movements one way or the other of a center within the overall movement of a storm?

[Jr0d]

Nice tower over what appears to be a MLC off the tip of Florida around 25.1N, much further south of the LLC around Marco Island and Naples. Given the broadness of the low, I am uncertain the LLC Aric is tracking will become the dominant center.

We will see!

Interesting no storm warning for the Florida Straits, despite the 5pm discussion of the scatterometer winds.

[3090]

They actually adjusted the landfall point in MS east a little. But I mean tonight and tomorrow it's possible we will see east shifts because center seems to be outside cone right now.

I was just quoting what they said in their 5:00pm Forecast DIscussion. Not making any preps here either...our Probs of seeing any TS force winds was decreased significantly at the last Advisory from 47% to 30% so the trend seems to be not much impact and I'm definitely good with that. I will however, keep an eye on it.

Recon found center east of NHC position. Models should come back east some.

More east again? I mean they HAVE to, right?

[ConvergenceZone]

this is taking much longer to get going than I thought it would. Many here thought it would become a tropical storm last night and already be in the strengthening phase. But at this point, IF it is a tropical storm, it's not much of one. I agreee with wxman, tropical depression is much more likely......
I think it will be up to 50 mph by tomorrow afternoon, and then 60 by tomorrow night, topping off at 80 mph by Monday night as it starts to encounter some shear close to shore.........

[DestinHurricane]

I was just quoting what they said in their 5:00pm Forecast DIscussion. Not making any preps here either...our Probs of seeing any TS force winds was decreased significantly at the last Advisory from 47% to 30% so the trend seems to be not much impact and I'm definitely good with that. I will however, keep an eye on it.

Recon found center east of NHC position. Models should come back east some.

More east again? I mean they HAVE to, right?

Most likely will come back east when they init the right center.

[MississippiWx]

this is taking much longer to get going than I thought it would. Many here thought it would become a tropical storm last night and already be in the strengthening phase. But at this point, IF it is a tropical storm, it's not much of one. I agreee with wxman, tropical depression is much more likely......
I think it will be up to 50 mph by tomorrow afternoon, and then 60 by tomorrow night, topping off at 80 mph by Monday night as it starts to encounter some shear close to shore.........

It’s on the struggle bus currently, but even models that develop it into a strong hurricane don’t really show it strengthening much until tonight and tomorrow.

I agree it’s in a rough spot with a naked swirl for now.

[us89]

this is taking much longer to get going than I thought it would. Many here thought it would become a tropical storm last night and already be in the strengthening phase. But at this point, IF it is a tropical storm, it's not much of one. I agreee with wxman, tropical depression is much more likely......
I think it will be up to 50 mph by tomorrow afternoon, and then 60 by tomorrow night, topping off at 80 mph by Monday night as it starts to encounter some shear close to shore.........

My bet is in post-season reanalysis, it will be downgraded to a TD for this afternoon but upgraded to a TS before its first landfall last night based on radar velocities and surface observations.