ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Nice tower over what appears to be a MLC off the tip of Florida around 25.1N, much further south of the LLC around Marco Island and Naples. Given the broadness of the low, I am uncertain the LLC Aric is tracking will become the dominant center.

We will see!

Interesting no storm warning for the Florida Straits, despite the 5pm discussion of the scatterometer winds.

it is not a matter of what "I am" tracking..

it is the center lol ..

convection also now firing with the actual LLC. The MLC is being pushed south still and it would take the LLC to be void of convection for awhile and weaken to relocate that far south.

it is 2020 so anything is possible i suppose

[ClarCari]

It’s definitely a tropical storm right now, data is there to support it.
I’m not saying that’s there’s for sure wishful thinking in this thread that Sally won’t be worst case scenario but maybe rather frustration when a storm doesn’t look like our pre-conceived notion of what one must look like. And it could be dangerous thinking bc I’ve seen “trash” looking storms blow up. I’ve looked back in some of the archives for past major storms, and there was definitely some denial of their strength allll the way through with some of these intense storms.
I’m open-minded to the Worst Case Scenario with any storm.

[beachnut]

Naked spiral passing overhead with clear sky above it...Clouds in motion...

Winds gusting now...

I'm in the SW Cape near Tarpon Point. Still cloudy and breezy, but you're right ... when I look your way I can see the evening sun starting to peek through under the cloud deck. This storm is weak, may get some interesting rain squalls later, but we've seen a lot worse afternoon seabreeze boomers these past few weeks.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's an evening video update on Sally if people are in the mood to watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQRKyAVrbYM

[ConvergenceZone]

It’s definitely at tropical storm right now, data is there to support it.
I’m not saying that’s there’s for sure wishful thinking in this thread that Sally won’t be worst case scenario but maybe rather frustration when a storm doesn’t look like our pre-conceived notion of what one must look like. And it could be dangerous thinking bc I’ve seen “trash” looking storms blow up. I’ve looked back in some of the archives for past major storms, and there was definitely some denial of their strength allll the way through with some of these intense storms.
I’m open-minded to the Worst Case Scenario with any storm.

I hear ya....The trap people often fall into though is they think that just because a couple of other storms in the past went ballistic on strengthening, that the current one will as well, which is a false premises . Every storm is a unique storm and upper air dynamics are never the same, so they can never be compared to another one.

[xironman]

Lower and mid level still way out of sync. Won't intensify much until that resolves itself.

[AnnularCane]

Maybe I'm missing something but she looks all right to me. She seems to be flaring up right around her center too.

Of course I'm only going by appearance.

[cheezyWXguy]

this is taking much longer to get going than I thought it would. Many here thought it would become a tropical storm last night and already be in the strengthening phase. But at this point, IF it is a tropical storm, it's not much of one. I agreee with wxman, tropical depression is much more likely......
I think it will be up to 50 mph by tomorrow afternoon, and then 60 by tomorrow night, topping off at 80 mph by Monday night as it starts to encounter some shear close to shore.........

It’s on the struggle bus currently, but even models that develop it into a strong hurricane don’t really show it strengthening much until tonight and tomorrow.

I agree it’s in a rough spot with a naked swirl for now.

Agreed on all fronts. I think it’s going to another 12 hours or so before anything really starts happening. Inflow on the north side is too dry and all that convection on the south side is stealing energy from the center. I don’t think it’s really going to be able to kill that off until the north side moistens up, but that should happen as it moves further away from land

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Even if the center is a bit further S than initially thought it seems the NW to N component would still happen in the same time frame, especially since we are not talking a huge difference in plotting, and with most all
Models later showing a NNE to NE turn once inland that turn could actually take place closer to the coast.

All I know after living here in Mobile 61 years I won’t be taking my eye off this old gal until she is long gone.

[bella_may]

It’s definitely a tropical storm right now, data is there to support it.
I’m not saying that’s there’s for sure wishful thinking in this thread that Sally won’t be worst case scenario but maybe rather frustration when a storm doesn’t look like our pre-conceived notion of what one must look like. And it could be dangerous thinking bc I’ve seen “trash” looking storms blow up. I’ve looked back in some of the archives for past major storms, and there was definitely some denial of their strength allll the way through with some of these intense storms.
I’m open-minded to the Worst Case Scenario with any storm.

Yeah it’s not smart at all for anyone to let their guard down yet (especially with the strength some models are showing). We’ve seen this film many times before.

[Jr0d]

Nice tower over what appears to be a MLC off the tip of Florida around 25.1N, much further south of the LLC around Marco Island and Naples. Given the broadness of the low, I am uncertain the LLC Aric is tracking will become the dominant center.

We will see!

Interesting no storm warning for the Florida Straits, despite the 5pm discussion of the scatterometer winds.

it is not a matter of what "I am" tracking..

it is the center lol ..

convection also now firing with the actual LLC. The MLC is being pushed south still and it would take the LLC to be void of convection for awhile and weaken to relocate that far south.

it is 2020 so anything is possible i suppose

It's just a low level swirl is all I am seeing. Sally still has an ill defined center and broad circulation. However if that swirl is becoming the dominate circulation then it is the center.

[psyclone]

This system has always seemed like it's number 1 hazard is a potential QPF bomb. Rainfall potential never gets the attention it deserves but it should start being elevated...especially after some of the extreme events in recent years. Freshwater flood threat is big...it is very possible it ends up as the #1 hazard of Sally. time will tell.

[ClarCari]

It’s definitely at tropical storm right now, data is there to support it.
I’m not saying that’s there’s for sure wishful thinking in this thread that Sally won’t be worst case scenario but maybe rather frustration when a storm doesn’t look like our pre-conceived notion of what one must look like. And it could be dangerous thinking bc I’ve seen “trash” looking storms blow up. I’ve looked back in some of the archives for past major storms, and there was definitely some denial of their strength allll the way through with some of these intense storms.
I’m open-minded to the Worst Case Scenario with any storm.

I hear ya....The trap people often fall into though is they think that just because a couple of other storms in the past went ballistic on strengthening, that the current one will as well, which is a false premises . Every storm is a unique storm and upper air dynamics are never the same, so they can never be compared to another one.

Right on! Never close the door on these things either way.
For ex. I think we all thought Rene was gonna have decent shot at becoming a hurricane, now I’m just happy that it was only an minor inconvenience to the Cabo Verde Islands and thats it, we move on. It’s almost like people close the door on a system that it makes me look like I’m banking on it becoming a Category 10 monster or something. We just gotta meet in the middle

[3090]

The naked swirl that was apparently being tracked by a number of folks on this forum, was not the center. And to add, it is washed out and the BROAD center is west of Everglades national park.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have to say though, the llc looks really weak on visible imagery. I am wondering what potential there is for the center to relocate south in to the deeper convection?

[DestinHurricane]

The naked swirl that was apparently being tracked by a number of folks on this forum, was not the center. And to add, it is washed out and the BROAD center is west of Everglades national park.

Where are you seeing this?

[cheezyWXguy]

The naked swirl that was apparently being tracked by a number of folks on this forum, was not the center. And to add, it is washed out and the BROAD center is west of Everglades national park.

Where are you seeing this?

I can see what he’s getting at, but it’s likely just an mlc, at least for now

[bella_may]

Center is finally pushing offshore. Things could start to get interesting now https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/sta ... 00226?s=21

[aspen]

Baby storm organizational hiccups are all I see. Nothing out of the ordinary. Sally has plenty of time to get its centers stacked and become a hurricane.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1304906371905847302