ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTPatrick]

This system has always seemed like it's number 1 hazard is a potential QPF bomb. Rainfall potential never gets the attention it deserves but it should start being elevated...especially after some of the extreme events in recent years. Freshwater flood threat is big...it is very possible it ends up as the #1 hazard of Sally. time will tell.

The good news is that the coastal Mississippi counties are used to heavy rain being some of the wettest areas in the country. The southern 6 counties there as well as mobile and Baldwin, can take on a LOT of rainfall without “major” effects...provided surge isn’t prolonged onshore and it gets blocked from draining well. This system could be borderline for that. But the places on rivers in those Coastal counties Are fairly well built on higher ground and used to the threat. being at the coast helps you drain quickly...now you drop 20 inches Hattiesburg north and you have problems.

[bella_may]

[tweet] https://twitter.com/wxgreg/status/13049 ... 71618?s=21[/tweet]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good thread

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1304878445273534465

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1304906371905847302

This is one thing that has been standing out to me with this storm. It is sucking in ALL of the surrounding air signifying a strong circulation. I’m thinking it will have no issues strengthening once established over the Gulf a little longer.

[Dean4Storms]

The LLC did move more NNW past few hours, looks now NW of Marco Island with the MLC still sheared to its SSE.

[FLpanhandle91]

LLC appears to be 40 or so miles south of Sanibel Island.

[edu2703]

I don't expect any significant strengthening until late Sunday and I think NHC agrees with me. The next 24-36 hours will be crucial in determining Sally's intensity at landfall.

We can't rule out RI yet, especially with models supporting it. There is still plenty of time to organize and strengthen over warm waters and low shear environment before shear kicks in.

[Aric Dunn]

The LLC did move more NNW past few hours, looks now NNW of Marco Island with the MLC still sheared to its SSE.

Yeppers.. and convection is beginning to build with it now that its back offshore.

[Sanibel]

The clouds are solid now and going more SE to NW...White mist rain was blowing sideways...Bushes shaking...There's energy in this thing...First faint wind howls...

[Dean4Storms]

LLC appears to be 40 or so miles south of Sanibel Island.

Agree, it jogged more NNW last few hours.

[DestinHurricane]

LLC appears to be 40 or so miles south of Sanibel Island.

Agree, it jogged more NNW last few hours.

Could have potential implications for future track. Models are too far west if this is indeed the center.

[Dean4Storms]

LLC appears to be 40 or so miles south of Sanibel Island.

Agree, it jogged more NNW last few hours.

Could have potential implications for future track. Models are too far west if this is indeed the center.

I wouldn't say that quite yet, if this trend happens well into tonight then for sure. These LLC's in their formative stages like this with shear involved can dance around in short term but when you look over a long period of time you get a better picture of the longer term track. We will see.

[Nimbus]

The clouds are solid now and going more SE to NW...White mist rain was blowing sideways...Bushes shaking...There's energy in this thing...First faint wind howls...

Thanks for the warning its south of you and probably on the NHC heading of 280(from the last recon point).
6 hour averaging works better so we will have to wait for the next mission.
The low level swirl south of Sanibel is moving west possibly being steered by the inflow.
Will be watching IR tonight to see if the convection rolls west in tandem.

[Hurricane Mike]

Sally's southern inflow looks good. I think once the storm clears Florida more strengthen will ensue. Probably in 12-18 hrs.

[Ivanhater]

I have removed a few posts.

If you cannot be respectful to other members, don't bother posting at all. Check your attitude at the door.

[sikkar]

Is that the LLC perpendicular to Naples just off shore? Also any one else having issues with the Keys radar skipping frames?

[Aric Dunn]

Is that the LLC perpendicular to Naples just off shore? Also any one else having issues with the Keys radar skipping frames?

Yeah looks about just west of Naples.

may do a small cyclonic loop as a convective bursts starts to build north from the ongoing convection to the south.

[Jr0d]

The clouds are solid now and going more SE to NW...White mist rain was blowing sideways...Bushes shaking...There's energy in this thing...First faint wind howls...

Still very little wind in Key West. I still think we might get some faint howls if we get a band with some good South winds. The west winds of Sally are barely here.

[Gums]

Salute!

Looking more and more like the 47 storm for NOLA. That was first storm I can remember for one short view out the front door window of the roots of a large oak tree heaving as the eye went right over us. Hell, I was only 4 years old, but that memory existed.

The big surges since 47 have mostly been from storms coming in from the south like Katrina or Audrey or Camille.

I no longer live there, and now over in the Panhandle. But thots and prayers are with my relatives and friends there for this approaching storm.

Gums sends...

[Dean4Storms]

It's still so weak you have to wonder if the friction of the surface wind coming into it on it's eastern flank over land is causing it to get pulled into the more NNW motion. That wind has to be much slower than the wind coming into the LLC rotation from the west over the Gulf. Fluid dynamics 101, resistance pull.