ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Salute!

Looking more and more like the 47 storm for NOLA. That was first storm I can remember for one short view out the front door window of the roots of a large oak tree heaving as the eye went right over us. Hell, I was only 4 years old, but that memory existed.

The big surges since 47 have mostly been from storms coming in from the south like Katrina or Audrey or Camille.

I no longer live there, and now over in the Panhandle. But thots and prayers are with my relatives and friends there for this approaching storm.

Gums sends...

Hello Gums.
18z models are shifting east except for the HWRF. Also the trend of a slower storm would mean a turn more east. To top all of that off, sally is currently moving NNW well east of forecast.

I think we could see some east shifts to put our area in play. We need to watch this.

[Frank P]

18z HWRF shifted west with a major hurricane’s NE eye wall passing through or extremely close to NOLA... pucker pressure should rise exponentially for New Orleanians seeing that models run.

[cheezyWXguy]

Llc is finally coming back to life

[aspen]

Sally is putting on quite a show for a weak TS, with lots of banding and a nice, healthy convective burst near the center. That might try to force the LLC to take a jump south.

[Aric Dunn]

Llc is finally coming back to life

yeppers. just need to get away from land a little.

[northjaxpro]

Llc is finally coming back to life

Yes it is. Convection really beginning to bloosom around it.

[Sanibel]

The clouds are solid now and going more SE to NW...White mist rain was blowing sideways...Bushes shaking...There's energy in this thing...First faint wind howls...

Still very little wind in Key West. I still think we might get some faint howls if we get a band with some good South winds. The west winds of Sally are barely here.

Picking up here...Wind steady now...Sheets of sideways rain...

[Frank P]

Llc is finally coming back to life

Looks so much better convection wise from the past couple of hours... I would think that she is starting the strengthening process and should continue throughout landfall... and NOLA better hope that the 18z HWRF doesn’t come to fruition...

[psyclone]

special marine warning covering nearshore Lee county waters kind of tells us what Sally is doing near term. She likes the beach tour:

At 737 PM EDT, strong storms associated with Tropical Storm Sally
and capable of producing strong gusty winds and waterspouts were
located along a line extending from near Fort Myers Beach to 9 nm
southeast of Sanibel, moving northwest at 25 knots. These storms
are expected to increase in areal coverage inside the warning area.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to nearly 50 knots.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the sheared MLC is dissipating and a new one is forming above the LLC, so in essence there was a relocation but it was of the MLC

[Monsoonjr99]

Convection increasing as night falls. Could see LLC and MLC align during DMax, then Sally's off to the races. Those living in LA/MS/AL need to keep a close eye on Sally in case of rapid strengthening in the coming days. Hopefully shear can weaken it before landfall.

[weeniepatrol]

[Aric Dunn]

Convection on radar on the east side of the center just offshore naples is starting to really pick up...

[lhpfish]

Getting some good weather in northeast bro ward now.

[aspen]

Looking pretty good now that the LLC is over water.

[MississippiWx]

Salute!

Looking more and more like the 47 storm for NOLA. That was first storm I can remember for one short view out the front door window of the roots of a large oak tree heaving as the eye went right over us. Hell, I was only 4 years old, but that memory existed.

The big surges since 47 have mostly been from storms coming in from the south like Katrina or Audrey or Camille.

I no longer live there, and now over in the Panhandle. But thots and prayers are with my relatives and friends there for this approaching storm.

Gums sends...

Hello Gums.
18z models are shifting east except for the HWRF. Also the trend of a slower storm would mean a turn more east. To top all of that off, sally is currently moving NNW well east of forecast.

I think we could see some east shifts to put our area in play. We need to watch this.

Literally no models at 18z shifted East except maybe the HMON. HWRF and Euro shifted west at 18z and the GFS was identical to 12z. ICON was about the same as well.

[hurricanehunter69]

Salute!

Looking more and more like the 47 storm for NOLA. That was first storm I can remember for one short view out the front door window of the roots of a large oak tree heaving as the eye went right over us. Hell, I was only 4 years old, but that memory existed.

The big surges since 47 have mostly been from storms coming in from the south like Katrina or Audrey or Camille.

I no longer live there, and now over in the Panhandle. But thots and prayers are with my relatives and friends there for this approaching storm.

Gums sends...

Hello Gums.
18z models are shifting east except for the HWRF. Also the trend of a slower storm would mean a turn more east. To top all of that off, sally is currently moving NNW well east of forecast.

I think we could see some east shifts to put our area in play. We need to watch this.

It's all fun and games until you have to deal with the aftermath. God I hope you're right man. This thing has slow moving major hurricane impacts written all over it....If it does come your way....good luck!

[La Breeze]

Convection increasing as night falls. Could see LLC and MLC align during DMax, then Sally's off to the races. Those living in LA/MS/AL need to keep a close eye on Sally in case of rapid strengthening in the coming days. Hopefully shear can weaken it before landfall.

Eastern LA, correct?

[Frank P]

GFS and Euro not all that far off now as far as landfall location, and through in the HWRF and AVN and it strongly points to a SELA and MS/Al coast event based on these particular 18z model runs... from what air can tell, especially from the HWRF, Sally is not going to be a large storm so that should hopefully impact the wind and storm damage overall, as opposed to a much larger cane... but still forecast errors are still in play so anyone in the NGOM coastal areas need to be prepared.. Hard to beat the NHC with their analysis and forecasts.. they are my go to sources for making life saving decisions... from what I’ve seen to date, and possible worst case scenario potentials, I plan to ride out the storm at my beach house in Biloxi with wife up in Nashville. I don’t expect it to be worse than Elena wind wise, and the forecast surge of 9 feet would not even top the sea wall in front of my house... I just don’t want a night storm or a storm that stalls or slows down near landfall...

[DestinHurricane]

Salute!

Looking more and more like the 47 storm for NOLA. That was first storm I can remember for one short view out the front door window of the roots of a large oak tree heaving as the eye went right over us. Hell, I was only 4 years old, but that memory existed.

The big surges since 47 have mostly been from storms coming in from the south like Katrina or Audrey or Camille.

I no longer live there, and now over in the Panhandle. But thots and prayers are with my relatives and friends there for this approaching storm.

Gums sends...

Hello Gums.
18z models are shifting east except for the HWRF. Also the trend of a slower storm would mean a turn more east. To top all of that off, sally is currently moving NNW well east of forecast.

I think we could see some east shifts to put our area in play. We need to watch this.

Literally no models at 18z shifted East except maybe the HMON. HWRF and Euro shifted west at 18z and the GFS was identical to 12z. ICON was about the same as well.

GFS shifted slightly east and so did ICON.