Disturbance in the Western GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[GCANE]

CMC & UKMET have spinup in the Mid GoM this weekend

[us89]

Still 10/30 on the 8am TWO:

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[lrak]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

West then SW??? This is a strange season for sure! I agree it is definitely better organized than this morning. Maybe another "micro" storm.

[Nimbus]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

West then SW??? This is a strange season for sure! I agree it is definitely better organized than this morning. Maybe another "micro" storm.

That track would be the result of a stronger system further east.
Would be pretty sheared but might put up enough of a battle to keep the intensity of the system moving across Florida in check.

[us89]

Still 20/30 at the 8 PM update

1. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible while it moves
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ClarCari]

mehh At best I expect a Jose 2005 or Micro Marco 2008

[mpic]

So is it safe to say that this is a poof for the north gulf coast?

[us89]

So is it safe to say that this is a poof for the north gulf coast?

As far as the north gulf coast goes, probably, but NHC does still indicates a 30% chance of development:

1. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible while it moves westward and
then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

At this point the most likely areas to be affected by this would be the south Texas and northeast Mexico coasts...which is a good thing since the US north gulf coast will have far more to worry about with Sally in the coming days.

[lrak]

The pressure has been slowly falling the last 24hrs, the 850mb map is showing it increasing, and since this morning the visible satellite shows it has started spinning more rapidly and defined. If the shear drops a bit and it gets a moisture treat then who knows with this year.

[ClarCari]

The pressure has been slowly falling the last 24hrs, the 850mb map is showing it increasing, and since this morning the visible satellite shows it has started spinning more rapidly and defined. If the shear drops a bit and it gets a moisture treat then who knows with this year.

If this does get a name can 97L form first so this cam be Wilfred pls. icky Vicky is tooo good of a name for whats probly (hopefully) gonna be a measly tropical storm in the southern gulf

[Fancy1001]

The pressure has been slowly falling the last 24hrs, the 850mb map is showing it increasing, and since this morning the visible satellite shows it has started spinning more rapidly and defined. If the shear drops a bit and it gets a moisture treat then who knows with this year.

If this does get a name can 97L form first so this cam be Wilfred pls. icky Vicky is tooo good of a name for whats probly (hopefully) gonna be a measly tropical storm in the southern gulf

Depends on what way you're using icky.

[ClarCari]

The pressure has been slowly falling the last 24hrs, the 850mb map is showing it increasing, and since this morning the visible satellite shows it has started spinning more rapidly and defined. If the shear drops a bit and it gets a moisture treat then who knows with this year.

If this does get a name can 97L form first so this cam be Wilfred pls. icky Vicky is tooo good of a name for whats probly (hopefully) gonna be a measly tropical storm in the southern gulf

Depends on what way you're using icky.

From the Fairly Odd Parents I would hope for a nice Fish Major but it looks like if 97L does develop it may run into some of the same problems Rene did. Oh well! We’ll see.

[lrak]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42360 a buoy on the eastern side of the spin. Dropping sorta fast?

[bob rulz]

NHC not impressed. Development chances have dropped to 10/20

[Fancy1001]

If this does get a name can 97L form first so this cam be Wilfred pls. icky Vicky is tooo good of a name for whats probly (hopefully) gonna be a measly tropical storm in the southern gulf

Depends on what way you're using icky.

From the Fairly Odd Parents I would hope for a nice Fish Major but it looks like if 97L does develop it may run into some of the same problems Rene did. Oh well! We’ll see.

I know what joke you were making, I made that one a while ago. I meant did you mean icky as is scary, or icky as in disgusting.

[ClarCari]

Depends on what way you're using icky.

From the Fairly Odd Parents I would hope for a nice Fish Major but it looks like if 97L does develop it may run into some of the same problems Rene did. Oh well! We’ll see.

I know what joke you were making, I made that one a while ago. I meant did you mean icky as is scary, or icky as in disgusting.

Honestly if it became a threat to land it would earn Icky Vicky soo maybe I lowkey don’t want it to become Icky
Well looks like this distubrance tho is going in the gutter.

All it did was make the path in front of Sally more moist and ripe for strengthening.. Thanks alot..

[StPeteMike]

Cute little naked swirl East of Brownsville. Seems like the ULL to the Southwest of it is keeping it barely alive.

[Ryxn]

I know all the eyeballs are on the Atlantic's balls but this one is starting to gain some 'vection. Clouds swirling around and some solid vorticity. Maybe future Wilfred in the Campeach?...once silly Sally swims ashore? I love seeing building convection. It's strangely so beautiful to watch, ideally when out to see though. Such an odd south trajectory too. Very interesting time in the trops.

GOM Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Steering: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &prod=dlm1 (yeah this may just find its demise being buried in Mexico)

[Extratropical94]

A mission into this area was tasked yesterday. Let's see if they fly out today.

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 15/1630Z
D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT