Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 57.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday
through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
Paulette's structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the
deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly. Most
of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new
convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone
reconstitutes itself. For now, the initial intensity remains 60
kt. An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has
well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should
allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt
during the next 12-24 hours. Strengthening is anticipated to
continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is
possible due to increasing southwesterly shear. The intensity
guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles,
and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity
forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above
the intensity consensus. Paulette is likely to be strengthening
while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours,
and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is
a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours.
Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the
subtropical ridge located due north of the storm. The ridge may
strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to
move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the
northwestward motion by late Sunday. After that time, an
approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States
will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply
toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3. The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward
the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the
mid-latitude flow. The track guidance is well clustered and has
not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles.
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one.
Key Messages:
1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 57.8W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday
through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg