Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

This wave emerges on Monday and NHC is watching it.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
within the next couple of days. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter as the disturbance moves slowly
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Models have become much less enthusiastic with this wave overnight.

[toad strangler]

Models have become much less enthusiastic with this wave overnight.

Which means next to nothing at this point. Once again globels whiffed on what looks like a potential hurricane with Sally. So while modeling shouldn't be ignored, it's satellite that has been giving the first evidence of a potential system this year. Especially in the Western part of the basin. Globals have not done a good job with the obvious candidates in AEW's either. Just have to sit back and watch.

[StPeteMike]

This is the Caribbean Cruiser models were hinting at last last week, right?

[toad strangler]

This is the Caribbean Cruiser models were hinting at last last week, right?

Which one? Models have been hinting at one every week for awhile now.

[gfsperpendicular]

This is the Caribbean Cruiser models were hinting at last last week, right?

I think so. A lot of the models have backed off, intensity-wise, though.

[TheStormExpert]

Models have become much less enthusiastic with this wave overnight.

Which means next to nothing at this point. Once again globels whiffed on what looks like a potential hurricane with Sally. So while modeling shouldn't be ignored, it's satellite that has been giving the first evidence of a potential system this year. Especially in the Western part of the basin. Globals have not done a good job with the obvious candidates in AEW's either. Just have to sit back and watch.

Well models have done well surprisingly with Paulette, TD #20, and too some extent Rene. So it’s worth considering.

Wouldn’t surprise me if this Cape Verde season is cut real short as it never took off until last week.

[StPeteMike]

Besides Paulette, almost all the models overestimated the strengths of Rene at this time, same with TD20, and had 97L as a TS at this point. The GFS I would say is the most realistic, as it showed Rene dying out around Monday/Tuesday, but still showed 97L be at least a weak TS.

[toad strangler]

Models have become much less enthusiastic with this wave overnight.

Which means next to nothing at this point. Once again globels whiffed on what looks like a potential hurricane with Sally. So while modeling shouldn't be ignored, it's satellite that has been giving the first evidence of a potential system this year. Especially in the Western part of the basin. Globals have not done a good job with the obvious candidates in AEW's either. Just have to sit back and watch.

Well models have done well surprisingly with Paulette, TD #20, and too some extent Rene. So it’s worth considering.

Wouldn’t surprise me if this Cape Verde season is cut real short as it never took off until last week.

That's why I said they should not be completely ignored. Also, I've heard chatter about La Nina conditions could help prolong or back load a Cape Verde season. I'm no ENSO expert though.

[aspen]

This might be a sleeper wave we’d have to keep an eye on to see if it encounters more favorable conditions after 5-7 days.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS briefly develops this into a TD before conditions become unfavorable at 50°W.

[chaser1]

This might be a sleeper wave we’d have to keep an eye on to see if it encounters more favorable conditions after 5-7 days.

My thoughts exactly. I'm not the least bit worried about any monster Cat 3 rapidly once pulling off the African coastline. Now, show me a vigorous TW that might just trek across the pond between 10-15N and that's what get's my attention. So let the numbers rack up because it's wild to watch and besides, ACE never killed anybody. Potential landfalls are what I focus on.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Some gradual development of the system is possible by the middle of the week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SFLcane]

Interesting now up to 0-30%...

[TheStormExpert]

Why’d they raise the five day development chances when there’s no model support?

[ElectricStorm]

Why’d they raise the five day development chances when there’s no model support?

Because they realize how bad the models have been this year lol

[SFLcane]

Why’d they raise the five day development chances when there’s no model support?

PV streamer behind TD20 will shear it and probably drive it north with it.

[ClarCari]

I’m personally throwing 97L the towel and paying more attention to this one. Since this wave looks to be following the same southern part of the MDR as TD20, I can see two scenarios.
Either it develops at around the same pace as TD20 did, maybe recurve, maybe become a major, etc.
OR it stays disorganized and weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean or even in the Caribbean.
At the end of the day I don’t see this wave not becoming some type of thing at some point. Big question is when?

[LarryWx]

I’m personally throwing 97L the towel and paying more attention to this one. Since this wave looks to be following the same southern part of the MDR as TD20, I can see two scenarios.
Either it develops at around the same pace as TD20 did, maybe recurve, maybe become a major, etc.
OR it stays disorganized and weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean or even in the Caribbean.
At the end of the day I don’t see this wave not becoming some type of thing at some point. Big question is when?

Because it is going to come off 4 days later than TD 20 and because I've yet to see any model run having anything remotely as ominous as many runs of various models had for TD 20, I'm currently not nearly as concerned as I was at times when TD 20 was still over W Africa. Remember how scary the outlook for TD 20's wave was when it was over W Africa? At one point, I was thinking it had a 1 in 3 chance of something pretty bad.

Any significant concern for this new TW would have to wait til if/when model consensus ever does much with it. At this point, it would appear that the biggest potential threat from this would be mainly if it remains a wave until just E of the Caribbean and then develops.

With TD 20 now having no more than a 5% chance of ever being a threat, this has a slightly higher chance than TD 20 right now (perhaps 10-15%) given higher uncertainty, it coming off at a low lat, and it being a Nina, but mainly if it doesn't become a TD until past 50W.

I remain more concerned about "ridge over troubled water" homegrown potential next week.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Some slow development of the system is possible by the middle or late part of the week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.