ATL: SALLY - Models

[PTPatrick]

Much stronger and more east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png

977 on gfs would easily mean cat 2 I would think.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs with another shift east, landfall maybe just a touch west of Biloxi? Keep in mind the 06Z was WEST of NOLA.

The slower Sally goes the further east these models move it seems

[MississippiWx]

Much stronger and more east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png

Wow. Well, that's an eye opener. However. I'm thinking the east trend continues in later runs. ICON might be onto something. Definitely the strongest run of the GFS yet.

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z

[LowerAlabamaTider]

GFS 18Z
https://i.imgur.com/OW3MK2S.gif

And we haven't done a thing here in regards to preparation . . . Hmmm

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS likes Gulfport.

Also talk about a slow down, wow, late Tuesday afternoon on GFS, Icon/NAM is late Wednesday... If this is a pattern change, look out for flooding.

[PTPatrick]

GFS 18Z
https://i.imgur.com/OW3MK2S.gif

And we haven't done a thing here in regards to preparation . . . Hmmm

That’s been my concern for my friends and fam in the area. Everybody been just kinda watching it struggle and shift to Nola. Tomorrow morning it could get very real. I was amazed Nhc didn’t go ahead and upgrade ocean springs to dauphin island to hurricane warning On 5 pm.

[shah83]

What it does look like, to me, is that how far west Sally goes, is dependent on the strength of the ridge to the east. I'm wondering if that is not a more trickier diagnosis than where a storm will round the edge of the ridge or trough pickup.

[FixySLN]

GFS 18Z
https://i.imgur.com/OW3MK2S.gif

And we haven't done a thing here in regards to preparation . . . Hmmm

That’s been my concern for my friends and fam in the area. Everybody been just kinda watching it struggle and shift to Nola. Tomorrow morning it could get very real. I was amazed Nhc didn’t go ahead and upgrade ocean springs to dauphin island to hurricane warning On 5 pm.

We're on our toes in Ocean Springs (minus the school district). Truck is packed if we need to bolt and we've got the obvious provision in the house. The neighbors are of the same mind...prepped for a bad week.

[Dean4Storms]

Models are notorious in this situation of over or under estimating weakening or strengthening Ridges. This might end up in AL.

[3090]

18Z models are not as accurate as the 0Z and 12Z from what I understand.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18Z models are not as accurate as the 0Z and 12Z from what I understand.

This is untrue. All four runs incorporate various different balloon and satellite data. See post #5 here: viewtopic.php?t=111226

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF coming in stronger by about 10mb.

[tolakram]

15mb stronger

[tolakram]

[Ivanhater]

So far, further east than the 12Z run

[Dean4Storms]

I would think the 18z GFS got the NOAA IV Jet samplings into the run.

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Makes landfall nearing major hurricane status.

[tolakram]